瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250610

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, industry maintenance and alumina stockpiling support the spot price; in the long - term, with the commissioning of new caustic soda plants from June to July and the release of downstream stockpiling demand, the supply - demand of caustic soda is expected to weaken. The price of SH2509 is low and the basis is high, so short - selling is not advisable [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2308 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the futures holding volume is 271,481 lots, up 28,692 lots; the net holding of the top 20 futures is - 29,043 lots, down 6,350 lots; the futures trading volume is 612,851 lots, up 19,871 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2248 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2307 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 415 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From May 30th to June 5th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.5%, down 0.6% from the previous period. As of June 5th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 382,100 tons (wet tons), down 2.67% month - on - month and up 5.52% year - on - year [3] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, last week the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased 0.6% to 83.5%, with little change. In June, centralized maintenance has started, but the high profit of chlor - alkali drives the high - load operation of plants, and the reduction in supply may be limited. On the demand side, the alumina production - resuming devices are increasing, and the operating rate is continuously rising; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased 0.04% to 80.56%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased 1.18% to 61.5%. This week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased 2.67% to 382,100 tons, maintaining a destocking trend and at a relatively high level in the same period [3] 3.8 Cost and Price Analysis - Currently, the cost in Shandong is 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the peak season of coal and electricity demand may support the future electricity cost. Some alumina plants in Shandong and Guangxi have raised the purchase price of liquid caustic soda [3]