光大证券晨会速递-20250610

Macro Analysis - In May, domestic prices continued to operate at low levels due to falling energy prices and weak investment demand, but prices for travel services, some consumer manufacturing, and high-tech products increased, indicating the acceleration of new momentum [1] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain low, with the recent increase in pig supply due to regulatory impacts leading to weaker pork prices, potentially creating new downward pressure [1] - PPI is anticipated to see a narrowing of the month-on-month decline as oil prices stabilize and trade conditions improve, with attention on the support from new policy financial tools for investment [1] Market Strategy - Most major asset classes rose this week, with WTI crude oil prices leading in gains and the US dollar index showing a notable decline [2] - The A-share broad indices all rose, with the ChiNext index showing the highest increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index had the lowest rise [2] - Most industries experienced gains, with telecommunications leading in growth and home appliances showing a decline [2] Company Research - The basic situation of property management remains stable, with Sunac Services (1516.HK) poised for independent development [3] - Sunac China’s recent offshore debt-to-equity swap plan received 82% support from bondholders, and the total sales amount for May was 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%, indicating strong performance [3] - The impact of related parties on Sunac Services is expected to be alleviated, with sufficient provisions for trade receivables impairment, allowing the company to potentially break free from real estate influences starting in 2025 and enter a stable growth trajectory [3] - Forecasted net profit for the parent company from 2025 to 2027 is 420 million, 520 million, and 620 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [3]