宝城期货国债期货早报-20250610

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1] - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The macro - economic indicators are weakening, increasing the expectation of monetary policy easing, but short - term interest rate cuts are difficult to implement, so the Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term (within one week) view is to oscillate, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated. The inflation data in May continued to weaken, and the weakening of macro - economic indicators increased the expectation of monetary policy easing, pushing down the Treasury bond yield. Although the uncertainty of the tariff outlook deepens and the domestic macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged. With the market's interest - rate cut expectation basically zero, the expectation of future easing policies will increase, providing strong support for the bottom of Treasury bond futures. However, short - term interest rate cuts are difficult to implement, and the downward space for market interest rates is limited, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [4]