锌：社库累库，价格承压下行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc social inventory is accumulating, causing the price to face downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price and Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,910 yuan/ton, down 2.12%; the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,662.5 dollars/ton, down 0.95%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 242,193 lots, an increase of 68,645 lots; the LME Zinc trading volume was 10,645 lots, a decrease of 762 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 135,718 lots, an increase of 16,071 lots; the LME Zinc open interest was 217,427 lots, an increase of 464 lots [1]. - Premium and Discount: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -35.6 dollars/ton, down 0.09 dollars/ton. The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 280 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton. The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was 240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -443.38 yuan/ton, down 34.81 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 2,078 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME Zinc inventory was 135,600 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME Zinc cancelled warrants were 60,875 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons [1]. - Related Product Prices: The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 60,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 News - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the month - on - month change turned from an increase to a decrease. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.3%. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4%. China's rare earth export volume in May increased by nearly 23% month - on - month, soybean import volume increased by 129% month - on - month, reaching a record high, and coal and oil import volumes decreased [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].