生猪：降重初启动，等待现货印证

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In June, the market will enter the stage of accelerated weight - reduction and inventory - clearance. However, in the first week of weight - reduction, the market support was limited, leading to passive stockpiling by some enterprises and an accelerated decline in spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. [3] - Many enterprises have announced a policy to ban the second - fattening. De - stocking in the third quarter is beneficial for the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter with the same basic inventory will decrease by 6 - 8%. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increment of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The liquidity of the fourth - quarter contract will increase, and the medium - term expectation is turning stronger. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. [Fundamental Tracking] - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,750 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,140 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change. [1] - Futures Prices: The price of the生猪2507 contract is 13,070 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2509 contract is 13,475 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2511 contract is 13,300 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the生猪2507 contract is 4,996 lots, a decrease of 831 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 14,721 lots, a decrease of 1,296 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 26,496 lots, a decrease of 360 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,563 lots, a decrease of 1,258 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 4,413 lots, a decrease of 790 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 38,400 lots, an increase of 616 lots from the previous day. [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of the生猪2507 contract is 830 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2509 contract is 425 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 115 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2511 contract is 600 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of the生猪 contract is - 405 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [1] 2. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [2] 3. [Market Logic] - The market will enter the accelerated weight - reduction and inventory - clearance stage in June. The limited market support in the first week of weight - reduction led to passive stockpiling and falling spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. [3] - The third - quarter de - stocking is beneficial for the repair of long - term expectations. A 10KG decrease in average weight per head will lead to a 6 - 8% decrease in fourth - quarter pork supply. The January contract, a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increment of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The fourth - quarter contract will see increased liquidity, and the medium - term expectation is turning stronger. [3]