螺纹钢：需求预期走弱，低位震荡，热轧卷板：需求预期走弱，低位震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The demand outlook for rebar and hot-rolled coils is weakening, and they are expected to fluctuate at low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Data: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 2,981 yuan/ton and 3,095 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of -1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) and -2 yuan/ton (-0.06%). The trading volumes were 1,433,362 lots and 512,180 lots, and the open interests were 2,196,722 lots and 1,585,218 lots, with changes of -19,727 lots and +2,740 lots respectively [1]. - Spot Prices: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Beijing remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Tianjin remained stable, and the price in Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet remained at 2,900 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 129 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton. The spreads RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510, and HC2601 - RB2601 all decreased, while the spot coil - rebar spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to -3 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Economic Data: In May, the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. The national consumer price decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The average national consumer price from January to May decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2]. - Steel Trade Data: In May 2025, China exported 1057.8 million tons of steel, a 1.1% increase from the previous month. From January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 4846.9 million tons, an 8.9% increase year - on - year. In May, China imported 48.1 million tons of steel, a 7.9% decrease from the previous month. From January to May, the cumulative steel imports were 255.3 million tons, a 16.1% decrease year - on - year [3]. - Steel Production Data: In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2300 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 209.1 million tons (a 4.9% decrease in daily output month - on - month), 2104 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 191.3 million tons (a 3.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month), and 2394 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 217.7 million tons (a 2.5% increase in daily output month - on - month) [3]. - Weekly Data: According to the weekly data on June 5, rebar production decreased by 7.05 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 0.47 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 10.57 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.83 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.79 million tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.65 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.01 million tons, and the total apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.62 million tons [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3][4].