Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and treasury bonds are recommended for bottom - up allocation and are expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Rebar and iron ore are recommended for temporary observation; coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range; aluminum is recommended for short - selling with a light position; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][10] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to fluctuate weakly; soda ash's 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy; urea and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][19] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner; apples are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][35] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs and eggs are recommended for short - selling on rallies; corn is recommended for operation within the range of [2300, 2360]; soybean meal is recommended for buying on dips; oils are recommended for short - selling on rallies [1][39] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - factors. It points out that different futures markets show different trends due to factors such as economic data, policy changes, seasonal demand, and cost fluctuations. For example, the stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap, stable large - cap", while the bond market is in a path of sentiment repair. In the commodity market, some products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, and some are influenced by external factors such as tariffs and international trade relations [1][5] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - Index Futures: The A - share market showed a differentiated performance on Monday. The CSI 1000 index futures were the most active, while the trading volume of the SSE 50 was low. The market presents a pattern of "strong small - cap, stable large - cap", and the overall trend is expected to be fluctuating with an upward bias [5] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market sentiment continued to recover on Monday. Although the intraday market fluctuated, the bulls were dominant. Positive factors are resonating, but the trade talks may boost risk appetite, and the interest rate decline may have some reasonable pull - backs [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The fundamental supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to factors such as the decline in demand and the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies [7] - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price fluctuated on Monday. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly affected by macro - news. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is recommended to observe [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price center may continue to move down. The coke market's fundamentals are also loose, and the price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The impact of tariffs on copper prices has increased again, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range. Although the supply is high, the low inventory and supply disruptions still support the price, but the weakening downstream consumption restricts the upward space [10] - Aluminum: The bauxite supply in Guinea is disturbed, and the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as the decline in downstream demand and the increase in tariffs, the short - term aluminum price is expected to be weak [12] - Nickel: The nickel market has a pattern of high cost and oversupply in the medium - long term. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short - sell on rallies [14] - Tin: The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving, but the downstream consumption is affected by tariffs. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [16] - Gold and Silver: Affected by factors such as US economic data, tariff policies, and central bank policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: In the long - term, PVC has a pattern of weak demand and high supply. Although the inventory has decreased recently, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20] - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda market has a situation of strong current situation and weak expectation. In June, there are many overhauls, but the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to focus on factors such as alumina production and inventory [22] - Styrene: The styrene market has a pattern of high valuation and loose supply - demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies, focusing on factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24] - Rubber: The rubber market has a situation of limited raw material price decline space and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on macro - news [25] - Urea: The urea market has a pattern of oversupply. It is expected to run weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as compound fertilizer production and urea inventory [28] - Methanol: The methanol market has a pattern of high supply and limited demand support. It is expected to run weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as macro - changes and olefin plant operations [30] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market has a pattern of increasing supply pressure and entering the traditional off - season of demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as downstream demand and domestic policies [31] - Soda Ash: The soda ash market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak downstream demand. The 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy [33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, but due to the warming of Sino - US relations, the cotton price is expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner [35] - Apples: The apple market has a stable price, and it is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range due to low inventory [36] - PTA: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the PTA price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The pig market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [39] - Eggs: The egg market has a pattern of sufficient supply and seasonal weakening of demand. The short - term price support is weak, and different contracts have different trading strategies [40] - Corn: The corn market has a pattern of short - term supply - demand game and long - term tightening of supply - demand. It is recommended to operate within a high - level range and pay attention to substitutes [41] - Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market is affected by US soybean weather and import costs. The short - term price is restricted by supply increase, while the long - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [43] - Oils: The oil market has a pattern of mixed long - and short - term factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and rebound from the third quarter. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the oil - meal ratio [49]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250610
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-06-10 02:05