Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Cotton is expected to oscillate. In the short - and medium - term, the futures price will continue to oscillate before the tariff negotiations. In the long - term, the forward trend may diverge, depending on the attitude towards reciprocal tariffs. PTA is likely to face pressure. As macro - level benefits are digested and the supply - demand situation weakens, it may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Ethylene glycol will trade in a range. Although there is support from supply - demand, the upward movement is restricted. Short - fiber has bottom support. Despite possible further decline in processing fees, the supply may decrease, limiting the downside. Sugar is in a weak oscillation. International and domestic factors are mixed, and the price will maintain a weak oscillation. Apples will oscillate. With the impact of seasonal fruits, the price will stay around 7500 [1][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Brief Views Cotton - Macro factors include concerns about the US Treasury bond maturity in June, domestic macro - level favorable policies, changes in Sino - US relations, the European Central Bank's interest - rate cut, and the net short position of CFTC funds. Fundamentally, the domestic commercial inventory is tight this year, which supports the 09 contract. The probability of a global bumper harvest in the new season is increasing. The consumption side is variable, depending on the US attitude towards tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut time. In the short - and medium - term, the market is waiting for the negotiation results, and the 07 contract's warehouse receipts may shift to the 09 contract. It is expected to oscillate between 13300 - 13625 next week, and attention should be paid to the price decline in July and August and the low point in the 12000 - 12500 range. In the long - term, the forward trend depends on the tariff attitude [1]. PTA - Due to geopolitical tensions and reduced Canadian oil production, international oil prices have risen. The PTA spot price has decreased. The domestic weak macro - level sentiment, weakening industrial supply - demand, and the weakening of the chemical sector have led to the weakening of the absolute price and the loosening of the spot basis. The PTA device's operating rate has increased, while the polyester production and sales rate has slightly decreased. With the digestion of macro - level benefits and the high spot basis, the PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it may continue to face pressure in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - The international oil price decline has led to a decrease in the cost of ethylene glycol. The domestic production start - up has recovered, and the import arrival is low. Although the demand side has a high operating rate, the downstream polyester's cautious inventory replenishment restricts the upward movement of ethylene glycol [3]. Short - fiber - The tight supply of raw materials PX - PTA provides strong cost support. The short - fiber market may oscillate at a high level next week. However, due to poor downstream transmission, the processing fees may continue to decline. With some enterprises starting to reduce production, the downside space is limited [4]. Sugar - Internationally, although the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern part of Brazil have decreased year - on - year at the beginning of the new season, there is still an expectation of increased production. In addition, the growth prospects of sugar crops in major producing countries such as India have improved, putting pressure on the futures price. Domestically, factors are mixed. The fast sales speed this season, the peak summer consumption season, and the control of syrup and premixed powder imports support the price, but continuous rainfall in Guangxi, the opening of the import profit window, and future import pressure lead to a weak oscillation of the sugar price [5]. Apple - The apple market is stable. The new - season apple bagging work continues in the producing areas. The trading atmosphere of in - warehouse goods is average, and the shipment is slow. The sales in the consumer market are average, affected by seasonal fruits. With the low inventory in the main producing areas and the approach of the seasonal off - season, the price will oscillate around 7500 [5]. 2. Macro Key Information - On June 9 and 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by energy prices. The PPI was still at a low level, but there were positive changes in some areas [8]. 3. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of May 22, the average PTA processing interval decreased, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the restart of some devices [11]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China decreased, and the weekly output also decreased, with both integrated and coal - based production showing declines [11]. Short - fiber - By the end of May, the monthly output of domestic polyester short - fiber increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. However, the cost was still stronger than the short - fiber price, and the processing fees continued to decline [11]. Sugar - In May, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports decreased year - on - year. As of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports remained the same as last week, but the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Guangdong's sugar production and sales increased, and the industrial inventory was zero [11][13][14]. Apple - As of June 4, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas decreased, and the shipment speed slowed down compared with last week. The prices in Shaanxi and Shandong producing areas are provided [14]. 4. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, spreads, capacity utilization rates, inventory changes, and other data of cotton, PTA, ethylene glycol, sugar, and apples [21][24][27][31][39][41].
长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250610
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-06-10 02:12