中原期货晨会纪要-20250610

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The report provides an overview of the morning meeting on June 10, 2025, including macro news, price changes in various futures contracts, and views on major futures varieties. It also analyzes the market trends and investment suggestions for different sectors such as agriculture, energy, chemicals, and industrial metals [3][6][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory Macro News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [6] - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued opinions to improve people's livelihood, including measures such as canceling household registration restrictions for social insurance participation [6] - In May, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, while PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. The country's macro - policies are taking effect, and some sectors show positive price changes [6] - In the first five months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Exports increased by 7.2%, and imports decreased by 3.8%. In May, the growth rate accelerated [7] - A - share indices fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.43% to 3399.77 points, and the market turnover reaching 1.31 trillion yuan [7] - In the first five months, China's equipment manufacturing product exports reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, contributing significantly to overall export growth [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs will conduct pilot projects on intelligent elderly - care service robots [8] - XPeng Motors announced that its new model G7 will make its global debut on June 11 [8] Futures Price Changes - In the chemical industry, most futures prices declined on June 10 compared to June 9, except for crude oil, fuel oil, and styrene which increased [3] - In the agricultural products sector, some prices increased (e.g., yellow soybean No. 1, yellow corn), while others decreased (e.g., yellow soybean No. 2, soybean meal) [3] Morning Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanut: The spot market is stable but weak. The short - term futures market will likely be weak and volatile, waiting for new drivers [12] - Oils: With the progress of China - US negotiations, the market lacks positive support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12] - Sugar: The fundamentals are mixed. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support at 5700 [12] - Corn: The futures price is rising, but the demand is under pressure. Short - term long positions can be held, but beware of the resistance at 2370 - 2380 [12] - Live Pigs: The market is oversupplied and in a weak downward trend, with the futures market also showing weakness [12][13] - Eggs: The spot price is stable with fluctuations. The futures market is weak, and the overall trend remains unchanged [13] Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price will continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to potential rebound opportunities [13] - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals lack support, and the 2509 contract should be treated with a bearish view [13] - Coking Coal and Coke: They are expected to be weak and volatile due to weak terminal demand and rising coke inventories [13] Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The prices rebounded, but the upward momentum is questionable. A bearish view on rallies is recommended [16] - Alumina: The spot price is weakening, and the 2509 contract may continue to be under pressure [16] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices are expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 3000 - 3050 for rebar and 3150 for hot - rolled coil [16][17] - Ferroalloys: They are in a bottom - grinding state. A bearish view on rebounds is recommended, and avoid shorting at low levels [18] - Lithium Carbonate: The market is oversupplied. It is recommended to short on rallies, and beware of technical rebounds at 60000 [18] Options and Finance - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the previous high. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and operate in a rolling manner [18][20] - Options: For trend investors, a defensive strategy is recommended. Volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility decline [21]