有色金属日报-20250610

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with limited upside and downside potential due to low inventory levels and supply disruptions, despite weakening downstream consumption [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to the weakening US economy, increased tariffs, and the approaching off - season, despite the current strong de - stocking of aluminum ingots and bars [2][4]. - Nickel prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - to - long term due to supply overcapacity, although cost support limits the downside [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, while paying attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Category 1. Base Metals - Copper: As of June 9, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.13% to 78,910 yuan/ton. Tariffs and Sino - US leader phone calls bring positive expectations, but downstream consumption is weakening. Social inventory is low and stable, and the upside and downside of copper prices are limited [1]. - Aluminum: As of June 9, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.20% to 20,025 yuan/ton. Guinea's mine - end disruptions will affect imports in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and aluminum downstream开工率 is decreasing. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][4]. - Nickel: As of June 9, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract rose 0.47% to 122,710 yuan/ton. There are supply shortages in nickel mines, and the nickel industry has over - capacity. Cost support limits the downside, but prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - Tin: As of June 9, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.31% to 263,740 yuan/ton. Tin ore supply is improving, but the improvement is limited. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and range trading is recommended [6]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: Spot market transactions are light, with holders holding firm on prices and downstream buyers making small - quantity purchases on dips. Traders are waiting for negotiation results and inventory inflection points [7]. - Aluminum: Spot aluminum market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases. Holders are more willing to sell, but traders are cautious [8]. - Zinc: Spot market trading volume has increased slightly. Holders lower premiums to stimulate sales, and downstream buyers purchase on dips, but macro uncertainties limit restocking [10][11]. - Lead: Spot market trading is light, with traders focusing on selling and downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases [12][13]. - Nickel: Spot market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases and trading mainly among traders [14][15]. - Tin: Spot market transactions are light due to high prices [16]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE: Copper, zinc, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increased, while aluminum and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - LME: Copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [18].