国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250610

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations [2]. - Silver: Technical breakthrough [2]. - Copper: The strength of LME copper spot prices supports the price [2]. - Aluminum: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Alumina: Continued downward movement [2]. - Zinc: Social inventory accumulation, price under downward pressure [2]. - Lead: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, bullish in the medium term [2]. - Tin: Stopped falling and rebounded [2]. - Nickel: The reality support and weak expectations are in a game, nickel prices oscillate [2]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, steel prices oscillate within a range [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 774.72, down 1.09%; the night - session closing price was 776.66, up 0.18%. The trend strength is 0 [5][8]. - Macro News: The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9th and continued on the 10th, focusing on tariffs, technology, and rare earths. China's May CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.3% [5][7]. Silver - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8909, up 0.70%; the night - session closing price was 9015.00, up 2.07%. The trend strength is 2 [5][8]. Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,910, down 0.03%; the night - session closing price was 79330, up 0.53%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk rose 1.01%. The trend strength is 1 [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The one - year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 3.6% in April to 3.2%. Teck Resources' copper mine in Chile will suspend production for about a month due to mechanical failure. China's May copper concentrate imports were 239.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4% [10][12]. Aluminum and Alumina Aluminum - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20025, down 45. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2483, up 32. The trend strength is 0 [13]. - News: China's May CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.3% [13][15]. Alumina - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2892, down 9. The trend strength is 0 [13]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21910, down 2.12%. The LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2662.5, down 0.95%. The trend strength is - 1 [16]. - News: China's May CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased by 3.4% [16][17]. Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16765, down 0.09%. The LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1974, down 0.35%. The trend strength is 1 [19]. - News: Similar to zinc, China's May CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased by 3.4% [19][20]. Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 263,740, up 0.05%; the night - session closing price was 263,860, up 0.38%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk rose 1.07%. The trend strength is 1 [22][23]. - Macro and Industry News: The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, China's May economic data, etc. [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,710, up 510. The trend strength is 0 [26]. - Macro and Industry News: Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel iron project has entered the trial - production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production. The Philippines is discussing a nickel ore export ban [26][29]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,640, down 40. The trend strength is 0 [26]. - Industry News: An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to stop production for maintenance from June to July, affecting about 11 - 13 million tons of 300 - series production [29].