镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行：不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are fluctuating in a range due to the game between real - world support and weak expectations, and stainless - steel prices are also oscillating within a certain range as negative feedback leads to increased production cuts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,710, with changes of 510 compared to T - 1, 1,610 compared to T - 5, - 70 compared to T - 10, - 920 compared to T - 22, and - 6,840 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 115,890, with changes of 17,270 compared to T - 1, - 29,664 compared to T - 5, 37,143 compared to T - 10, - 28,588 compared to T - 22, and - 218,077 compared to T - 66 [1] - The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,640, with changes of - 40 compared to T - 1, - 45 compared to T - 5, - 235 compared to T - 10, - 65 compared to T - 22, and - 745 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 76,193, with changes of 645 compared to T - 1, - 48,330 compared to T - 5, - 63,919 compared to T - 10, - 47,658 compared to T - 22, and - 125,868 compared to T - 66 [1] - Industrial Chain Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,700, with changes of 400 compared to T - 1, 1,525 compared to T - 5, - 500 compared to T - 10, - 1,150 compared to T - 22, and - 6,875 compared to T - 66. The Russian nickel premium is 700, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 250 compared to T - 5, 350 compared to T - 10, 450 compared to T - 22, and 800 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 949, with changes of - 2 compared to T - 1, - 5 compared to T - 5, - 2 compared to T - 10, 1 compared to T - 22, and - 46 compared to T - 66. The price difference between nickel plates and high - nickel iron is 278, with changes of 6 compared to T - 1, 20 compared to T - 5, - 3 compared to T - 10, - 12 compared to T - 22, and - 23 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 50 compared to T - 5, - 100 compared to T - 10, 0 compared to T - 22, and - 250 compared to T - 66. The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 0 compared to T - 5, 0 compared to T - 10, 50 compared to T - 22, and 0 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,815, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 100 compared to T - 5, - 200 compared to T - 10, - 300 compared to T - 22, and 415 compared to T - 66. The nickel sulfate premium is 821, with changes of - 88 compared to T - 1, - 436 compared to T - 5, - 90 compared to T - 10, - 47 compared to T - 22, and 1,928 compared to T - 66 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [2] - An overseas nickel smelter in an important metal - processing park in Indonesia has resumed production. The plant's production almost stopped in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4] - In February, Philippine media reported that the parliament was discussing a bill to ban nickel - ore exports, which is in the review stage of the two - house committee. Once signed into law, it will take effect in 5 years. On May 9, there was news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel - ore export ban starting from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [4] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance and halt production from June to July, with an expected impact of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the output of 300 - series products. The mill cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]