镍、不锈钢：短期或延续震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term nickel and stainless steel markets may continue to fluctuate. The intraday Shanghai nickel has been oscillating at the bottom. There is still short - term support in the Philippine nickel ore market, while the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia has slightly declined, and the premium in June has remained stable. The nickel - iron price is still on a downward trend, and due to profit pressure, the procurement intensity of upstream and downstream of nickel - iron is weak with ongoing games. The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, some traders are selling at a discount, and the inventory reduction is slow. The nickel salt in the new energy chain has declined due to the impact of nickel prices. Future focus should be on spot trading volume and fundamental drivers [1][4] Summaries by Related Contents Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - Price Forecast: The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - Inventory Management Strategies: When the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (using the Shanghai nickel main contract, selling with a 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (using over - the - counter/on - exchange options, selling with a 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); buy forward Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance (using far - month Shanghai nickel contracts, buying according to the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [3] - Procurement Management Strategies: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to sell put options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, selling according to the procurement plan, strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buying according to the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [3] Market Conditions - Nickel Market: The latest value of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 122,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai nickel consecutive - one contract is 122,200 yuan/ton (up 630 yuan, 0.52%), the Shanghai nickel consecutive - two contract is 122,370 yuan/ton (up 590 yuan, 0.48%), the Shanghai nickel consecutive - three contract is 122,520 yuan/ton (up 530 yuan, 0.48%), and the LME nickel 3M is 15,490 US dollars/ton (up 45 US dollars, 0.43%). The trading volume is 115,890 lots (unchanged), the open interest is 76,246 lots (unchanged), the warehouse receipts are 21,192 tons (up 35 tons, 0.17%), and the basis of the main contract is - 1,690 yuan/ton (up 490 yuan, 40.8%) [6] - Stainless Steel Market: The latest value of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,640 yuan/ton (unchanged), the stainless - steel consecutive - one contract is 12,680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan, - 0.08%), the stainless - steel consecutive - two contract is 12,710 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan, 0.04%), the stainless - steel consecutive - three contract is 12,670 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan, - 0.35%). The trading volume is 76,193 lots (unchanged), the open interest is 61,030 lots (unchanged), the warehouse receipts are 121,663 tons (down 1,282 tons, - 1.04%), and the basis of the main contract is 690 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan, 1.47%) [7] Inventory Conditions - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,375 tons (down 2,178 tons), the LME nickel inventory is 199,092 tons (down 1,014 tons), the stainless - steel social inventory is 983.3 tons (up 15.8 tons), and the nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons (up 1,907.5 tons) [8] Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, some stainless - steel plants have announced production cuts, and there is still support from the cost of nickel ore [5] - Negative Factors: The inventory reduction of stainless steel is slow, stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and the demand for precursors in the new energy chain is relatively weak [5]