贵金属日报：金震银涨，聚焦贸易谈判及美通胀-20250610

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term trend is divergent. Gold will continue to fluctuate, and the focus this week is on the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the US inflation data on Wednesday night. London silver remains strong, with the upper target moved up to the 40 area. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market showed a divergent trend. Platinum led the gains, followed by silver and palladium, while gold fluctuated slightly up. The US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yields fluctuated slightly down, European and American stocks fluctuated, the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fluctuated, crude oil rose, and Bitcoin soared. Since late May, the investment and futures positions of platinum and silver ETFs, as well as non - commercial net long positions, have all increased sharply. The 07 contract has been slowly reducing positions in June, indicating a certain possibility of a squeeze. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at 3346.7, unchanged; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.905 per ounce, up 2.12%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 774.72 yuan per gram, down 1.02%; the SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8909 yuan per kilogram, up 1.77% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Positions - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.1%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 37.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 2.01 tons to 936.22 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's position decreased by 52.31 tons to 14656.98 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory increased by 40.4 tons to 1158.3 tons per day; as of the week ending May 30, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 49 tons to 1347.5 tons per week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the key data to focus on is the US CPI data on Wednesday night. In terms of events, the focus is on He Lifeng's visit to the UK from June 8th to 13th and the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Bezant will testify before the House Committee this week. At 00:00 on Friday, the Fed will release the "US Quarterly Financial Accounts Report." This week marks the Fed officials' quiet period before the June 19th Fed FOMC meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices: The SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 774.72 yuan per gram, down 1.09%; the SGX gold TD was at 772.01 yuan per gram, down 0.97%; the CME gold main contract was at $3346.7 per ounce, up 0.47%. The SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 8909 yuan per kilogram, up 0.67%; the SGX silver TD was at 8888 yuan per kilogram, up 0.55%; the CME silver main contract was at $36.905 per ounce, up 2.15%. The SHFE - TD gold was at 2.71 yuan per gram, down 26.36%; the SHFE - TD silver was at 21 yuan per kilogram, down 35.29%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 90.6842, down 1.64% [7]. - Inventory and Position Data: The SHFE gold inventory was 17847 kilograms, unchanged; the CME gold inventory was 1184.9942 tons, down 0.05%. The SHFE gold position was 173184 lots, down 2.88%; the SPDR gold position was 936.22 tons, up 0.22%. The SHFE silver inventory was 1158.326 tons, up 3.61%; the CME silver inventory was 15375.0443 tons, down 0.08%; the SGX silver inventory was 1347.54 tons, down 3.51%. The SHFE silver position was 491386 lots, up 2.15%; the SLV silver position was 14656.983071 tons, down 0.36% [15][17]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 99.0016, down 0.2%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.18, down 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was 42761.76 points, unchanged. WTI crude oil spot was $64.58 per barrel, up 1.91%; LmeS copper 03 was $9768.5 per ton, up 1.01%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.49%, down 0.44%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 2.18%, down 0.91%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.47%, down 2.08% [22].