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高盛:GOAL Kickstart_ 来自第 899 条的根本性转变和技术逆风
Goldman Sachs·2025-06-10 02:16

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on asset allocation, advocating for diversification, particularly in international equities and bonds [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a renewed focus on the demand for US assets from foreign investors, with potential risks from incremental tax and policy changes affecting their appetite [3]. - US equity markets have shown limited reaction to recent economic data, with high dividend yield stocks slightly underperforming compared to the broader market [4]. - The report notes that US mega-cap stocks have been the primary drivers of the recent recovery in US equities, while the S&P 500 equal weight index remains flat against global counterparts [8]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates that both US Manufacturing and Services ISM came in below consensus, while non-farm payroll growth slightly exceeded expectations, suggesting a slowdown in US growth [1]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its deposit rate by 25 basis points and downgraded its inflation projection for 2026 to 1.6% [1]. Yield Curves and Interest Rates - Yield curves have flattened across regions, with US bonds experiencing a sell-off following the non-farm payroll report, driven by higher front-end and real rates [2]. - The report anticipates that the last rate cut by the ECB will occur in September, with expectations of further rate cuts from the Swiss National Bank [2]. Currency and Foreign Exchange - The report's foreign exchange strategists have adjusted their EUR/USD forecasts to 1.17, 1.20, and 1.25 for 3, 6, and 12 months respectively, reflecting concerns over US fiscal sustainability [3]. - The correlation between the US dollar and other assets has reverted to more normal levels, although the gap between the dollar and rates differentials remains wide [3]. Earnings Impact - The report estimates a potential impact of 5% on STOXX 600 earnings by year four, although companies may have offsetting options such as re-listing in the US [4]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in US government bonds, while maintaining a neutral stance on equities and advocating for international diversification [22].