高盛：中国_5 月 PPI 通缩加深；下调我们对 2025 - 26 年 PPI 的预测

Investment Rating - The report revises down the full-year 2025/26 forecast of headline PPI inflation to -2.4%/-0.7% yoy from -2.1%/-0.6% yoy previously, indicating a bearish outlook on the industry [10]. Core Insights - China's headline CPI inflation remained unchanged at -0.1% yoy in May, with a decline in goods prices offset by higher services prices [1][3]. - Headline PPI inflation fell to -3.3% yoy in May, down from -2.7% yoy in April, primarily due to falling commodity prices [1][9]. - The report indicates that the weak PPI data suggests more deflationary pressures on China's PPI inflation for 2025 and 2026 than previously anticipated [10]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI was -0.1% yoy, with a month-on-month increase of +0.5% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) [2][3]. - Food inflation decreased to -0.4% yoy in May, primarily due to lower prices of fresh vegetables, while pork prices rose by 3.1% yoy [4]. - Non-food CPI inflation was flat at 0% yoy, with fuel costs falling by 12.9% yoy [5][7]. PPI Analysis - Year-over-year PPI inflation fell to -3.3% yoy in May, with deeper deflation mainly from price declines in upstream sectors like energy and metals [9]. - Month-over-month PPI inflation declined to -5.1% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in May [9]. - PPI inflation in producer goods fell to -4.0% yoy in May, while consumer goods edged up to -1.4% yoy [9]. Forecast Revisions - The report incorporates weak PPI data, leading to a downward revision of the full-year 2025/26 forecast of headline PPI inflation to -2.4%/-0.7% yoy [10].