五矿期货早报有色金属-20250610

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short - term due to a combination of factors such as a tight supply of raw materials, a marginal stabilization of processing fees, and a weakening in consumer resilience, along with support from a rapid decline in LME's available registered warehouse receipts and high positions in near - month contracts of SHFE copper approaching delivery [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upward potential. Although the mood of economic and trade negotiations is positive and domestic inventories are decreasing rapidly, the US's increase in tariffs on imported aluminum products has put pressure on demand expectations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak as downstream consumer demand continues to decline, while the production of primary lead has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead remains high [4]. - Zinc prices may decline further. With an oversupply of zinc ore, an increase in the profit of zinc smelters, and weak terminal consumption, if there is no production control from the industrial side, zinc prices may continue to fall [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Although there is an expectation of a looser supply, there is still significant short - term uncertainty, and downstream enterprises have a strong demand for low - price procurement [8]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the long - term outlook is bearish. It is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [9]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound potential [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs. With continuous disturbances in the ore market and an over - capacity situation, it is recommended to short at high prices lightly [13]. - The stainless - steel market will continue to face pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, weak demand, weakened cost support, and downward macro - economic pressure [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 1.01% at $9,768/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,330 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 10,000 to 122,400 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 34,000 tons. Domestic social inventory was basically flat over the weekend [1]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, processing fees are marginally stable, and consumer resilience has weakened [1]. - Price Forecast: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at high levels, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78,500 - 79,800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,650 - 9,850/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 1.28% at $2,483/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,060 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.6 million to 53.0 million lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 48,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 477,000 tons [3]. - Supply and Demand: Economic and trade negotiations have a positive impact on sentiment, and domestic inventories are decreasing rapidly, but the US's tariff increase on imported aluminum products has affected demand expectations [3]. - Price Forecast: The price is expected to have limited upward potential, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,450 - 2,500/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16,764 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $9 to $1,981.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 41,800 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,900 tons [4]. - Supply and Demand: Downstream battery enterprises are promoting sales at reduced prices, consumer demand is weak, the production of primary lead has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead remains high [4]. - Price Forecast: The price is expected to remain weak [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed down 2.22% at 21,795 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $34.5 to $2,655.5/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 2,100 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 81,700 tons [6]. - Supply and Demand: Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, the profit of zinc smelters has increased, and terminal consumption is weak [6]. - Price Forecast: If there is no production control from the industrial side, zinc prices may decline further, and attention should be paid to the actions of smelting enterprises at the 21,500 yuan/ton level [6]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin main contract closed up 0.05% at 263,740 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 116 tons to 6,904 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged at 2,440 tons [7]. - Supply and Demand: There may be a reduction in tin ore imports in June, and the processing fees of tin concentrates remain at a historical low. Downstream orders have not increased significantly, and the acceptance of high - price raw materials is limited [8]. - Price Forecast: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin in the range of $30,000 - 33,000/ton [8]. Nickel - Price: SHFE nickel main contract closed down 0.27% at 121,950 yuan/ton, and LME main contract closed down 0.81% at $15,365/ton [9]. - Inventory: No significant inventory - related information provided. - Supply and Demand: Nickel ore supply is tight, nickel iron prices have rebounded, intermediate products are in short supply, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to strengthen [9]. - Price Forecast: The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the long - term is bearish. It is advisable to short at high prices after a rebound, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was 60,537 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,700 yuan, up 0.43% from the previous day [11]. - Inventory: Lithium salt production is at a high level, and downstream production growth is limited, resulting in high inventory pressure [11]. - Price Forecast: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound potential [11]. Alumina - Price: No specific price data provided. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 90,400 tons [13]. - Supply and Demand: There are continuous disturbances in the ore market, and the over - capacity situation is difficult to change [13]. - Price Forecast: The price is expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short at high prices lightly. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 2.06% to 1.1223 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 1.71% to 680,600 tons [15]. - Supply and Demand: The industry is facing high inventory and weak demand, along with weakened cost support and downward macro - economic pressure [15]. - Price Forecast: The market will continue to face pressure in the short - term [15].