聚烯烃日报：基本面维持，聚烯烃窄幅震荡-20250610

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and the futures market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The petrochemical inventory is accumulating, while downstream factories have strong restocking efforts, leading to a slow reduction in upstream factory inventory and trader inventory. During the petrochemical plant maintenance season, there are many planned maintenance devices, and several previously shut - down devices are expected to restart soon, resulting in an upward trend in supply and some supply pressure. It is currently the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand. The agricultural film operating rate continues to decline, and the operating rates of other end - users fluctuate weakly. End - user factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The international crude oil price is on the rise, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins. There is still cost - side support for PDH - made PP, and with the decline in propane prices, the operating rate of PDH - made PP has increased slightly [2]. Summary by Related Catalog I. Market Analysis - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,078 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,932 yuan/ton (+7). The LL spot price in North China is 7,090 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 7,100 yuan/ton (+0). The PP spot price in East China is 7,070 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China is 12 yuan/ton (-12), in East China is 22 yuan/ton (-12), and the PP basis in East China is 138 yuan/ton (-17) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 77.4% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 77.0% (+1.6%) [1]. - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 207.1 yuan/ton (-80.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 52.9 yuan/ton (-80.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 164.9 yuan/ton (+7.4) [1]. - Imports and Exports: The LL import profit is - 310.6 yuan/ton (+9.4), the PP import profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (+52.8), and the PP export profit is 14.6 US dollars/ton (-1.2) [1]. - Downstream Demand: The operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film is 12.9% (-0.1%), the operating rate of the PE downstream packaging film is 48.9% (+0.3%), the operating rate of the PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.7% (-0.5%), and the operating rate of the PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (+0.7%) [1]. II. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on plastics [3]. - Inter - period: No inter - period strategy is provided [3].