黑色建材日报：需求端表现疲软，双焦震荡运行-20250610

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment has slowed down, and steel prices are oscillating. Although steel inventories are decreasing and export resilience is strong, the impact of high tariffs on the US cannot be ignored, and future supply - side policies and Sino - US talks need attention [1]. - The iron ore market is weak and falling. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, but iron ore prices are still firm in the short - term. In the long - run, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the off - season demand and inventory changes [3]. - The demand side of coking coal and coke is weak, and prices are oscillating. Coking coal inventory is high and demand is weak, and the price center of coking coal and coke is expected to remain low [5][6]. - The procurement enthusiasm for thermal coal has improved, and the price in the production area is oscillating. In the short - term, price support is insufficient, and in the long - term, the supply is loose, and non - power coal consumption and restocking need attention [7]. Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Analysis: The futures trading atmosphere of rebar and hot - rolled coils is light, and the spot market transactions are average. The overall steel inventory is decreasing, and the low raw material prices make the steel mill profits acceptable. However, as the off - season approaches, building material consumption may decline, while plate demand remains resilient. The low domestic prices support export resilience, but the impact of high tariffs on the US still exists [1]. - Strategy: No trading strategies are provided for single - side, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore is weakly falling, and the spot price has a slight decline. The global iron ore shipment has increased slightly, and the arrival at 45 ports has increased by 2.9% to 2609 tons. On the previous day, the total transaction volume at major ports was 85000 tons, a 14.4% increase. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and steel mills have a production - cut expectation [3]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of selling hedging after the price rebounds [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures of coking coal and coke are oscillating. Some coking plants' production has declined due to environmental protection, and some coal mines have reduced production, providing some support. The port spot price of coking coal is weakly stable, and the terminal procurement is mainly for on - demand restocking. The import price of Mongolian coal is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating [5][6]. - Strategy: Coking coal is expected to oscillate, and coke is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The pit - mouth coal price in the production area is oscillating. Environmental protection has affected some coal mines and coal - washing plants in Ordos. Chemical and other industries maintain rigid demand procurement, and the procurement demand is acceptable. The port market is weakly stable, and the port inventory is decreasing. As the rainy season arrives, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small [7]. - Strategy: No trading strategies are provided [7].