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美国例外论- 899条款带来的根本性转变和技术阻力
Goldman Sachs·2025-06-10 02:55

Economic Indicators - US Manufacturing and Services ISM data fell below consensus, indicating potential slowing growth[1] - Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) growth slightly exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate remained flat, suggesting a mixed economic outlook[1] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced the deposit rate by 25 basis points and lowered its 2026 inflation projection to 1.6%[1] - Yield curves flattened across regions, with US bonds experiencing a sell-off due to higher front-end and real rates[2] Foreign Investment and Currency Forecasts - Section 899 highlighted concerns regarding foreign investors' appetite for US assets, potentially leading to further USD weakness[3] - EUR/USD forecasts were adjusted to 1.17, 1.20, and 1.25 for 3, 6, and 12 months respectively[3] Equity Market Reactions - US high dividend yield (DY) stocks slightly underperformed compared to the broader market, while non-US stocks with high US exposure showed muted returns[4] - Estimated impact on STOXX 600 earnings is projected at 5% by year four, with companies having options to mitigate this impact[4] Asset Allocation Strategy - The firm maintains a neutral stance in asset allocation, advocating for increased international diversification in equities and bonds[7] - US equities have partially recovered year-to-date underperformance, primarily driven by mega-cap stocks, while the S&P 500 equal weight remains flat against global indices[7]