淡季特征延续，??低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall: The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. For individual products, it gives ratings such as "oscillating" for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, silicon - manganese, and silicon - iron; "oscillating weakly" for glass, soda ash, and coking coal; and "oscillating with a downward view" for coke [7][8][11][12][14] 2. Core View of the Report - The black building materials market is in a low - level oscillation state. After a short - term rebound driven by favorable news, prices are under pressure again due to the approaching off - season. The demand for building materials remains weak, and the demand for industrial materials is facing a decline. Although some production links are in a state of loss, the overall profitability of steel mills is stable, and the conditions for negative feedback are not yet mature. The prices of various products are expected to show different trends of oscillation or weakening [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter shipment rush, with an expected seasonal increase in shipment volume, which will remain high until early July [2][7] - Demand: The profitability of steel enterprises is stable, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is expected to remain high in the short term [2][7] - Inventory: The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small. At the end of the month, the port may have a slight inventory increase when the ore arrives at the port, but the inventory increase range is limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7] 3.2 Carbon Element Coking Coal - Supply: Although the output of some individual coal mines has decreased slightly, most coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the coking coal output is still at a relatively high level. The actual transaction of Mongolian coal is limited, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, so the overall supply is still loose [3][11] - Demand: The coke output has started to decline. Under the environment of increasing inventory pressure on coke enterprises and shrinking coking profits, the coke output tends to decline [3][11] - Price: The supply contraction is limited, the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase, and the price lacks the driving force for a trend - like increase. It is expected to operate weakly [3][11] Coke - Supply: The coke output is at a high level but has started to decline, and the inventory pressure on coke enterprises continues to increase [3][10] - Demand: The molten iron output is declining, and the demand for coke is expected to weaken further [10] - Price: After the third round of price cuts, there is still a downward expectation in the market. The price is expected to face downward pressure [8][10] 3.3 Alloys Silicon - Manganese - Cost: The market is cautiously waiting and watching, and the manganese ore price still shows signs of decline [5][14] - Supply: The production cost in some areas has been slightly repaired, and the supply has increased slightly, but some areas are still in a loss state, and the manufacturers' willingness to ship is limited [5][14] - Demand: The black market is entering the off - season, the market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream has a strong attitude of pressing prices. The steel tenders are in progress, and the pricing is low [5][14] - Price: The supply - demand situation tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to decline. However, due to cost inversion, the manufacturers' willingness to ship is low. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate [5][14] Silicon - Iron - Cost: The cost may still have a dragging effect, and the Lanzhou - carbon market is stable [14] - Supply: The supply has increased slightly [5][14] - Demand: The terminal steel consumption is about to enter the off - season, the downstream has a strong willingness to reduce inventory, and the market sentiment is cautious [5][14] - Price: The disk is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term. The future market should pay attention to steel tenders and production conditions [5][14] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Demand: The off - season demand is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year, and the spot price is falling [5][12] - Supply: There are expectations of cold - repair and ignition, and there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure still exists [5][12] - Price: The disk is at a discount to the spot, but the price cut of Hubei's spot guides the disk down. The short - term view is oscillating weakly [5][12] Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming [5][12] - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to be for rigid procurement, and the growth of photovoltaic glass melting may not be sustainable [12] - Price: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [5][12] 3.5 Other Products Steel - Demand: The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, especially for rebar [7] - Supply: The molten iron output is at a high level, and the steel output has not decreased significantly, but the molten iron output may have reached its peak [7] - Price: Affected by falling raw material prices and pessimistic expectations for domestic demand, the short - term steel price is expected to oscillate [7] Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume has decreased again this week, and the resources are slightly tight [8] - Demand: The overall daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process has slightly increased, but the cost of electric furnaces at off - peak hours is in a deeper loss [8] - Price: Due to the pessimistic market expectation for off - season demand, the price of scrap steel is expected to oscillate following the finished products [8]