宝城期货资讯早班车-20250610

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy continues to recover steadily, with positive changes in trade and consumption, but also faces challenges such as low CPI and PPI [2][3][13][14]. - The commodity market shows various trends, including the listing of new futures options, fluctuations in precious metal prices, and changes in inventory of metals [3][4][7]. - The bond market is affected by factors such as central bank operations, trade negotiations, and market supply - demand, with yields showing different changes [19][20][23]. - The stock market performs strongly, with A - shares and港股 rising, and new stocks having a high success rate and significant profit - making effect [28][29]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1]. - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down from 50.4% in the previous month [1]. - In April 2025, the social financing scale increment was 11,591 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans of financial institutions were 280 billion yuan [1]. - In May 2025, CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year [1]. - In the first five months of 2025, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [3][14]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - In May, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [2]. - In the first five months, the total value of goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with exports increasing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 3.8% [3][14]. - The casting aluminum alloy futures and options were listed on the SHFE on June 10 [3]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose 3.55% to 1691 points on June 9 [6]. - Citigroup postponed the forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and expected three rate cuts this year [6]. Metals - Diversified asset allocation is crucial when constructing an anti - risk investment portfolio, and investors need to be more cautious due to changes in the macro - economic environment [7]. - On June 6, copper, zinc, and aluminum inventories at the LME reached new lows, with significant decreases [7]. - As of June 9, the gold holding of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.21% [8]. - Precious metal prices showed a differentiated trend on June 9, with platinum rising 7.8% [8]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In the first five months, China's imports of iron ore, crude oil, coal, soybeans, and refined oil decreased in varying degrees, along with a decline in import prices [9]. Energy and Chemicals - In May 2025, China's refined oil export value and volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - OPEC's oil production in May increased by 150,000 barrels per day compared to April [10]. Agricultural Products - China's soybean imports in May reached a record high of 13.198 million tons [11]. - India is expected to increase sugar exports in the 2025/26 season [11]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 9, with an operating rate of 1.40% [12]. Key News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [5][13]. - The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds was well - received, with a total issuance of over 374.8 billion yuan in the first month [15]. - The total debt due of real - estate enterprises in 2025 will reach 525.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.9% compared to 2024 [16]. - The scale of bond ETFs has exceeded 300 billion yuan, and more than 30% of bond funds' net values reached new highs in June [16]. Bond Market Summary - Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market fluctuated slightly, and Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results [19]. - Bond prices in the exchange market showed different trends, and the money market rates mostly declined [20][21]. - Yields of European and US bonds generally decreased [23]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 9 points to 7.1838 at 16:30 on June 9 [24]. - The US dollar index fell 0.19% to 99.01 in New York trading [24]. Research Report Highlights - The real - estate market is expected to stabilize, but the process may be divided into three stages [25]. - Interest rates are expected to reach new lows, and a new downward trend may start from mid - to late June [25]. - When investing in convertible bonds, investors should maintain a neutral position and pay attention to selection [26]. Today's Reminder - On June 10, 265 bonds were listed, 137 bonds were issued, 63 bonds were due for payment, and 141 bonds were due for principal and interest repayment [27]. Stock Market News - A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.43% to 3399.77 points [28]. - Hong Kong stock indices were strong, and all three indices entered a technical bull market [28]. - The average online winning rate of new stocks in 2025 decreased, and the profit - making effect of new stocks was significant [29].