光大期货能化商品日报-20250610
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-10 03:27
- Report Industry Investment Rating - All products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price center continued to move up on Monday, but the increase in OPEC production and the slowdown in China's import growth may put pressure on high oil prices, and the sustainability of the rebound should be monitored [1] - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market structure is relatively stable, but the spread and spot premium have declined. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to oscillate strongly, and long spreads can be considered [2] - The supply of asphalt in North China is low, and there is an expectation of supply reduction in Shandong, which provides bottom support. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - The fundamentals of TA are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The EG price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to port shipments and polyester production cuts [3] - Short - term weather disrupts rubber production, and downstream tire demand declines slightly, so the rubber rebound space is limited [4] - The MTO device operation rate remains high, but the port and inland inventories are rising, and the methanol price is expected to oscillate [6] - The short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - The PVC downstream is entering the off - season, and the fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: WTI 7 - month contract closed up $0.71 to $65.29/barrel, Brent 8 - month contract closed up $0.57 to $67.04/barrel, and SC2507 closed up 5.5 yuan to 479.3 yuan/barrel. OPEC production increased, China's imports decreased in May, and the overall macro - atmosphere is optimistic, but the refinery profit may be under pressure [1] - Fuel Oil: The main contracts of FU2507 and LU2507 fell on Monday. The low - sulfur market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market was relatively stable. The short - term cost rebound may lead to an oscillating - upward trend of absolute prices [2] - Asphalt: The main contract BU2507 rose on Monday. The supply in North China is low, and there is a supply reduction expectation in Shandong. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - Polyester: TA509 and EG2509 closed down, and PX also fell. The production and operation of some devices changed, and the overall fundamentals of TA are weak, while EG is expected to oscillate [3] - Rubber: The main contracts of RU2509 and NR rose, and BR fell. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and Myanmar has an export target. Short - term weather and demand factors limit the rebound space [4] - Methanol: The spot and international prices are given. The MTO device operation rate is high, but inventory is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - Polyolefins: The prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are presented. The short - term fundamentals have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation [6] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The prices in different regions are stable or adjusted. The real - estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis data (including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc.) of various energy - chemical products on June 10, 2025, and also gives the basis change and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, aiming to implement the strategic communication between the two heads of state and promote the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations [10] - In May, OPEC's crude oil production increase was lower than the target, with some countries under - producing [10] - In May 2025, China imported 46.6 million tons of crude oil, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: Displays the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15][17][20][22][24][25][27] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: Presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [28][33][34][37][40][42] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Shows the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: Displays the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][63][66] - 4.5 Production Profits: Presents the cash - flow and profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Assistant to the director and director of energy - chemical research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [73] - Du Bingqin: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has in - depth industry research experience and has won multiple awards [74] - Di Yilin: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [75] - Peng Haibo: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [76]