政策与大类资产配置周观察：赛点2.0仍处于第三阶段攻坚

Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - The phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump on June 5 aimed to recalibrate the direction of China-US relations, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and cooperation to resolve economic issues [10][11][12] - Premier Li Qiang's conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Carney on June 6 highlighted the desire to improve China-Canada relations, focusing on mutual opportunities rather than threats [12][13] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts global economic growth rates of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, a downward revision from previous forecasts due to increased trade barriers and economic policy uncertainties [15][22] - The report indicates that the US economy is expected to grow by 1.6% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with inflation rates projected to be 3.2% and 2.8% for the same years [15][21] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - Following the easing of trade tensions due to the US-China dialogue, major A-share indices rebounded, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively [24] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 13.681 billion yuan during the week, indicating positive market sentiment [24] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank's net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan since June has contributed to a more relaxed liquidity environment, with the DR007 rate remaining below 1.6% [46] - The ten-year government bond yield was recorded at 1.66% as of June 6, reflecting stable interest rates in the fixed income market [46] Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market saw fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals rebounding and crude oil prices continuing to rise, while pork prices experienced a decline [4] - The IEA has predicted a decline in global oil demand, which may impact related sectors [4] Group 6: Financial Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved Central Huijin's control over eight companies, enhancing its influence in the financial sector [25] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting focused on high dividend returns and enhancing the value of listed companies, indicating a push for improved corporate governance [26][27]