经济数据开始显现偏弱的现实，能化整体震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, the general sentiment for the energy and chemical industry is "震荡" (sideways movement), with some品种having "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a weak bias) outlooks. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data shows a weakening reality, and the overall energy and chemical sector is expected to move sideways. The weak domestic economic data in May, including deflation trends and mixed trade data, are the main reasons for the adjustment in the domestic chemical market. However, the relatively stable oil prices limit the downside space for chemicals [1][2][3]. - Crude oil supply surplus expectations remain, but short - term macro and geopolitical factors support prices. OPEC + production increases have not fully met the quota, which helps ease short - term supply concerns, but the cumulative effect of production increases in the second half of the year may lead to a supply surplus [5]. - Different品种in the energy and chemical sector have their own supply - demand characteristics, and most are expected to move sideways or sideways with a weak bias. For example, LPG demand is weak, asphalt prices are expected to fall, and PTA supply is increasing while demand is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Supply surplus expectations remain, and prices are influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. On June 9, SC2507 closed at 474.3 yuan/barrel (+1.76%), and Brent2508 closed at 67.13 dollars/barrel (+0.72%). - Main Logic: Macro and geopolitical factors boost short - term prices. Saudi Arabia's actual production increase in May was less than the quota, which eases short - term supply concerns. However, the supply surplus is expected in the second half of the year due to the cumulative effect of OPEC + production increases. - Outlook: Prices will continue to move sideways under the balance of OPEC + production pressure and macro - geopolitical support [5]. LPG - Viewpoint: Demand is weak, and the upward rebound space is limited. On June 9, PG 2507 closed at 4116 yuan/ton (+0.44%). - Main Logic: Domestic refinery maintenance is ending, and supply is increasing. High temperatures reduce domestic combustion demand, and PDH device operating rates are slightly declining, with limited propane demand. - Outlook: It is expected to move sideways at the bottom in the short term [10]. Asphalt - Viewpoint: Futures prices are expected to fall. The main asphalt futures closed at 3509 yuan/ton, and spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3650 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3695 yuan/ton respectively. - Main Logic: Crude oil price increases are driven by geopolitical factors, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, inventory in Shandong is decreasing, but cracking spreads are high, and production in South China is increasing. Demand - side indicators show that asphalt is overvalued. - Outlook: The probability of inventory reduction, basis, and calendar spread increases is high, but the absolute price is overvalued [5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The cracking spread is falling. The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2943 yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Crude oil price increases due to sentiment, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. China's fuel oil import tariff increase and the substitution of natural gas for oil in power generation reduce demand. - Outlook: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Prices follow crude oil and move sideways. The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3525 yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Supply and demand are both weak. Demand is affected by weak refined oil products, shipping demand decline, and energy substitution. Domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - Outlook: It will follow crude oil price fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9]. PX - Viewpoint: Supply resumes quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. On June 9, PX CFR China Taiwan was 808 (-10) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 6494 (-62) yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Crude oil price fluctuations slow down the cost - side guidance. Asian PX operating rates are expected to increase, and PTA device restarts are stronger than maintenance. Domestic PX is in a de - stocking cycle. - Outlook: Supply - demand competition intensifies, and prices will continue to consolidate [11]. PTA - Viewpoint: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the market situation is deteriorating. On June 9, PTA spot price was 4855 (-42) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 473 (13) yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Demand is weak due to limited orders and high inventory in the weaving industry. Polyester production and sales are sluggish, and supply is restarting. - Outlook: Supply - demand weakens, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [11]. Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: Production cuts support processing fees, and prices follow raw materials. On June 9, polyester short - fiber prices were 6485 (-25) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 868 (-39) yuan/ton. - Main Logic: The short - fiber industry's production cuts reduce supply pressure, and the spot basis strengthens. The decline on Monday was due to macro factors, and the industry pattern is still healthy. - Outlook: Processing fee compression space is limited, and macro - level negatives dominate the market [15]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - Viewpoint: Prices follow raw materials, and the self - pattern is weak. On June 9, domestic polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, and the export quotes were also stable. - Main Logic: Supply and demand are weak. The industry is reducing production due to poor profitability, but inventory is still at a five - year high. - Outlook: Processing fees will fluctuate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the expansion power is limited [16]. PP - Viewpoint: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire - drawing PP was 7050 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 118 (-7) yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Oil price rebounds support the cost side, but terminal demand is weak. Supply is increasing, and high - level maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. - Outlook: Prices will move sideways in the short term [25]. Plastic (LLDPE) - Viewpoint: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream LLDPE spot price was 7120 (-10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 42 (-22) yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Oil price rebounds, but terminal demand is weak. The plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure, and demand is low. Overseas prices are stable, and the exchange rate affects the domestic market. - Outlook: The LLDPE 09 contract will move sideways in the short term [24]. Styrene - Viewpoint: Prices increase slightly. On June 9, the East China styrene spot price was 7450 (50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 239 (-53) yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Weekend sales of pure benzene in Shandong are good, which improves market sentiment. However, the real - time benefits are few, and supply may increase while demand is weak. - Outlook: Prices will move sideways with a weak bias in the short term [11]. PVC - Viewpoint: Prices have a weak rebound in the short term. On June 9, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 36 (-16) yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Sino - US talks improve market sentiment. However, in the medium - long term, new production capacity, off - season demand, and weak export expectations still put pressure on the market. - Outlook: Prices will have a weak rebound in the short term, and the market will be under pressure in the medium - long term without strong macro - stimulus [27]. Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: Spot prices have peaked, and short - selling is recommended. On June 9, the Shandong 32% caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2750 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 442 (+27) yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the receiving volume of Weiqiao increases. However, concentrated maintenance in June limits the decline space. - Outlook: Spot pressure is not large in June, and the 09 contract is expected to be bearish. Short - selling is recommended, but beware of supply reduction and alumina restocking [27]. Methanol - Viewpoint: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the low - end price of methanol in Taicang was 2325 yuan/ton, and the 01 port spot basis was 48 yuan/ton. - Main Logic: Prices are affected by cost pressure and weak demand. Port inventory is increasing, and coal price rebounds have a small impact. - Outlook: Prices will move sideways in the short term [21]. Urea - Viewpoint: The futures market is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. On June 6, the low - end prices of urea factory warehouses and the market were 1760 (-20) and 1740 (-65) yuan/ton respectively, and the main contract closed at 1697 yuan/ton (-1.34%). - Main Logic: Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weak. Exports are expected to be reflected in mid - to - late June. - Outlook: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and spot prices may be under pressure. The futures market is expected to move sideways with a weak bias [21]. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different品种have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, SC's M1 - M2 spread is 4 (-1), and WTI's M1 - M2 spread is 0.94 (-0.01) [29]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each品种has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the asphalt basis is 222 (+36), and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [30]. - Inter - variety Spreads: There are also inter - variety spread data, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 121 (-17) [31].