航运衍生品数据日报-20250610

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the latest data on shipping derivatives, including freight rate indices, contract prices, positions, and month spreads. It also analyzes the impact of Sino - US trade relations on the shipping market and provides a trading strategy of holding the 12 - 4 calendar spread [2][5][8]. 3. Summary Based on Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Indices: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both increased. The SCFI - US West had a significant increase of 27.19%, and the SCFIS - Northwest Europe soared by 29.62% [5]. - Contract Prices: All EC contracts (EC2506 - EC2604) showed positive growth, with the highest increase of 1.10% in EC2512 [5]. - Positions: Some contracts' positions decreased, such as EC2506 and EC2508, while others like EC2410 increased [5]. - Month Spreads: The 10 - 12 month spread decreased by 10.6, the 12 - 2 month spread decreased by 2.8, and the 12 - 4 month spread increased by 8.3 [5]. Trade - related News - Tariff Adjustments: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [5]. - Trade Frictions: There are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with disputes over compliance with agreements and plans for US sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - Trade Negotiations: The US negotiation team has internal differences, which complicate trade talks with China and Japan. A new round of Sino - US trade talks will be held in London on June 9 [7]. - Chinese Official Visit: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7]. Market Analysis - Spot Market: Shipping companies are eager to raise prices in late June. The market average transaction price in the first week of June was 23,500 $/FEU, and the high - end (75% percentile) was 27,000 $/FEU. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential capacity shortages can push up freight rates [8]. - Futures Market: The price increases in the spot market have stimulated the futures market to fluctuate upwards, especially for the near - month contracts of June and August [8]. Strategy - The report recommends holding the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].