债市周观察：通胀数据偏弱，降息动能积累

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market basically operated within the desirable range of 1.65% - 1.70% last week. The weak inflation data in May further accumulated momentum for monetary policy easing. The fixed - income market will continue to follow the logic centered on the central bank's monetary policy path, and future breakthrough points need to be explored from the perspectives of continuous weakening of domestic demand and further reduction of policy interest rates [3][18]. - In May, both the year - on - year and month - on - month CPI decreased, and the PPI remained at a relatively low level in the negative range. The low - price phenomenon is still severe [2][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bond Data Review of Last Week - Funding Rates: DR001 dropped from 1.48% on May 30 to 1.41% on June 3 and remained stable at this level on June 6; R001 fell from 1.57% on May 30 to 1.46% on June 3 and closed at 1.45% on June 6; DR007 declined from 1.66% on May 30 to 1.55% on June 3 and closed at 1.53% on June 6; FR007 decreased from 1.75% on May 30 to 1.59% on June 3 and closed at 1.56% on June 6 [7]. - Open Market Operations: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, injecting 930.9 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 1602.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of - 671.7 billion yuan [7]. - Sino - US Interest Rate Spread: The inversion of the Sino - US bond interest rate spread showed different trends at short and long ends. The 6 - month interest rate spread between China and the US was - 255BP, with a slight reduction in the inversion; the 2 - year and 10 - year spreads were - 262BP and - 285BP respectively, with an expansion in the inversion [12]. - Term Spread and Yield Curve: The term spread of Chinese bonds widened, and the yield curve steepened downward; the term spread of US bonds contracted, and the yield curve flattened upward [14]. 2. Continued Weakening of May Inflation Data - CPI: In May, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.1%, remaining stable for three consecutive months. The year - on - year CPI of food items was - 0.4%, continuing to decline from the previous value of - 0.2%, while the non - food items remained the same as last month. The core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. The month - on - month CPI was - 0.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value and back to the negative range [1][19]. - PPI: In May, the year - on - year PPI was - 3.3%, with the decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous value. The month - on - month PPI was - 0.4%, remaining in a negative growth state. Overall, the year - on - year and month - on - month CPI and PPI in May were in a relatively low negative range, and the low - price phenomenon was still severe [2][22][27]. 3. Key Bond Market Events of Last Week - China - UK Economic and Financial Dialogue: On June 8, 2025, He Lifeng, the Chinese co - chair of the China - UK Economic and Financial Dialogue, met with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt in London. They exchanged in - depth views on China - UK economic and financial cooperation and issues of common concern [28]. - US Unemployment Rate: In May, the US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. Non - farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, lower than the revised 147,000 in the previous month but higher than the market expectation of 129,000 [28].