新能源及有色金属日报：白银持续走强带动铜价震荡上行-20250610

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although downstream consumption is affected by holidays and the short - term开工率 of copper products and wire and cable may be under pressure, the mine - end supply is still highly disrupted. The low TC price and the strong silver price drive up the copper price. It is recommended to buy hedging on dips, with the buying range at 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,580 yuan/ton and closed at 78,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,920 yuan/ton and closed at 79,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.84% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - There was still a brand price difference problem in the spot market yesterday. Downstream procurement sentiment was poor, and holders did not continue to offer large discounts due to the approaching delivery. Today, as the delivery approaches, low - priced supplies are hard to find. It is expected that the spot will continue to be traded at a small premium in the second half of the week [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: No important economic data was released. There were events such as California suing the Trump administration, and the US Department of Justice asking to extend the suspension of the Trump tariff invalidation judgment. The US government may run out of funds for debt repayment between mid - August and the end of September. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is under Senate review [3] - Domestic: In May, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. In the first five months, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the trade volume with the US decreased by 8.1% [3] Mine End - In May 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 293.5 tons, and from January to May, it was 12.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. There was a 6.4 - magnitude earthquake in Chile, but no damage to mines or casualties were reported [4] Smelting and Import - The Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia of Zhongkuang Resources Group has temporarily suspended copper smelting due to the global shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and from January to May, it was 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [4] Consumption - From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, 1.03 percentage points lower than the previous week and 2.27 percentage points lower than expected. The copper cable industry's operating rate was 76.08%, a week - on - week decline of 2.59 percentage points. New orders were weak, and it is expected that the short - term operating rate will still be under pressure [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons to 122,400 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,964 tons to 34,242 tons. On June 8, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared with the previous week [5]