有色商品日报-20250610

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 1.01% to $9,768.5/ton, SHFE copper主力 rose 0.84% to 79,330 yuan/ton. There is a continuous loss in domestic spot imports. Macro factors show potential for Fed rate cuts in H2 2025, while in China, May CPI and PPI data are weak, and export and import performance varies. LME copper inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, while Comex copper increased. With the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand is slowing. The market is in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina is oscillating weakly, and Shanghai aluminum is oscillating strongly. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, and the inventory is under pressure. The increase in US aluminum import tariffs has led to weakening external demand. Electrolytic aluminum is in a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors and is undergoing weak adjustment [2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.81% to $15,365/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.6% to 121,950 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased. Nickel ore prices are firm, and stainless steel and new energy sectors have their own supply - demand situations. The overall market is in an oscillating state, constrained by downstream demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 2.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, and Comex copper increased by 902 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 118.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 30 yuan/ton. LME lead inventories decreased by 1,300 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the inventory decreased by 6,268 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 60 yuan/ton [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventories decreased by 1,014 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 550 yuan/ton [5]. - Zinc: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.8%. LME zinc inventories decreased by 1,375 tons, and social inventories increased by 0.28 million tons [6]. - Tin: The主力 settlement price remained unchanged, and LME tin inventories remained the same. The active - contract import loss decreased from - 17,999 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [6]. 2.2 Chart Analysis - 3.1 Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][13]. - 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spread for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][17]. - 3.3 LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - 3.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - 3.5 Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - 3.6 Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].