2025年5月：图说地方政府债券：新增债发行进度加快、16省完成第二批置换浙江首发用于收购存量商品房的专项债

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, Zhejiang issued special-purpose bonds worth 1753 million yuan for purchasing existing commercial housing as affordable housing, which will provide useful reference for other regions. The issuance scale of such bonds is expected to increase, but they face difficulties and potential pressure on returns [3]. - In May, the issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The issuance progress of new bonds was faster than last year but still lower than the average of the past three years. 16 provinces have completed the issuance of the second - batch replacement quota [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market - In May, local government bond issuance was 77.9443 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.74% and a month - on - month increase of 12.43%. Net financing was 55.4616 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.64% and a month - on - month increase of 4.94%. From January to May, the cumulative issuance was 4.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 52.93%, and the cumulative net financing was 3.71 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3 times [4]. - From January to May, special new special - purpose bonds issued exceeded 24.2384 billion yuan, with 9.8656 billion yuan issued in May. 29 provinces (excluding Guangdong and Shanghai) issued 162.9112 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing existing implicit debts, with 3.0168 billion yuan issued in May. 16 provinces completed the second - batch replacement issuance [6]. - In May, local government bond issuance was mainly new special - purpose bonds, with a scale of 44.3174 billion yuan, accounting for 56.86%. 22 provinces issued local government bonds, and Jiangsu had the largest issuance scale at 10.39 billion yuan [6]. - From January to May, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 35.1022 billion yuan, completing 43.9% of the annual quota. The cumulative issuance of new special - purpose bonds was 1.63 trillion yuan, completing 37.1% of the quota, faster than last year but still lower than the average of the past three years [6]. - In May, local government bond issuance was mainly 10 - year bonds. The issuance interest rate decreased month - on - month to 1.87%, and the issuance spread narrowed month - on - month to 10.69BP. Guangxi had the highest issuance interest rate, and Inner Mongolia had the largest issuance spread [8]. 3.2 Secondary Market - In May, the spot trading volume of local government bonds was 160.8804 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 13.36%. The short - end yield to maturity decreased overall, while the long - end yield to maturity increased overall [9]. 3.3 Repayment Situation - August is the peak of bond maturity this year. The interest payment scale in May is estimated to be around 15 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of nearly 20%. The annual interest payment scale in 2025 may exceed 1.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 12% [10][12]. - The maturity scale from June to September is relatively large, and Henan, Zhejiang and other places have relatively high local government bond maturity scales this year [11].