新能源及有色金属日报：工业硅期货盘面反弹，基差收窄-20250610

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the futures price rebounded while the spot price stabilized, with the basis narrowing significantly. The fundamentals changed little, but the overall sentiment improved recently. The price bottom is easily affected by various news, and the near - month contract has high positions, leading to large short - term fluctuations. Upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures price declined, and the spot price was weakly stable. The fundamentals are weak. As the number of warehouse receipts increases, the delivery game weakens, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent increase in warehouse receipts [3][5][10]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7,245 yuan/ton and closed at 7,475 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2507 was 177,663 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 9 was 60,179 lots, a decrease of 394 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8,400 - 9,000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton. The prices of individual silicon in Xinjiang and Sichuan continued to decline, while those in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Shanghai, and the northwest remained stable, as did the price of 97 silicon [1]. - The DMC price of silicone was 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The weekend quotation of Shandong monomer enterprises decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the bid - winning price dropped to 10,800 yuan/ton. After the price decline, the transaction center of the DMC market decreased [1]. Polysilicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures opened at 34,620 yuan/ton and closed at 34,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 64,383 lots (65,179 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 123,726 lots [3][7]. - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [3][7]. - The polysilicon inventory was 26.90 (a 0.37% month - on - month increase), the silicon wafer inventory was 20.02GW (a 7.80% month - on - month increase), the weekly polysilicon output was 22,000 tons (a 1.85% month - on - month increase), and the silicon wafer output was 13.04GW (a 2.67% month - on - month decrease) [3][4][7]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.92 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.28 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 yuan/piece [4][7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4][8][9]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W), and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W) [4][9]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [2]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [5][8][10].