沪锡日评：国内精炼锡产能升工率环比下降，国内外精炼锡库存量较上周减少-20250610

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to the suspension of Myanmar tin ore transportation through Thailand and domestic production and supply factors, the expected supply of tin ore in China is tight, and the operating capacity of refined tin fluctuates downward. With the decrease in domestic and foreign refined tin inventories, the Shanghai tin price may rebound. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Tin Futures: On June 9, 2025, the closing price was 263,740, up 140 from the previous day; the trading volume was 84,455 lots, a decrease of 39,883 lots; the open interest was 25,485 lots, a decrease of 492 lots; the inventory was 6,904 tons, a decrease of 116 tons. The basis was 160, a decrease of 640; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 40, an increase of 160 [1]. - LME Tin Futures: On June 9, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was 32,600, up 345 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 25, a decrease of 25; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 139, an increase of 6. The global inventory was 2,440 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Price Ratio: The Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.09 on June 9, 2025, down 0.08 from the previous day [1]. Supply - side Factors - Domestic: The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased compared with last week. Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi plan to stop production for maintenance, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin production and inventory in June. The scrap tin recycling system is under pressure, and the risk of capacity withdrawal increases, which may cause a month - on - month decrease in China's recycled tin production in June [1]. - International: The resumption of production of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo (Kinshasa) is phased, and the power system repair takes more than 3 months. The MSC smelting company in Malaysia suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance's approval of mining licenses is affected by corruption investigations and may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. Although PT Tinah plans to increase production and sales in 2025, the export volume of refined tin in June may not increase significantly [1]. - Import: Thailand's suspension of tin ore transportation from Myanmar since June 4 is expected to cause a reduction of 500 - 1,000 metal tons in China's tin ore imports in June [1]. Demand - side Factors - The processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production capacity utilization rate and inventory of China's tin solder wheels in June, and a month - on - month increase in imports and exports of China's solder strips in June. The production, imports, and exports of China's silver - tin plates may decrease, increase, and increase respectively month - on - month in June. The production capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries decreased compared with last week [1].