煤焦日报-20250610

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet-quenched coke down by 70 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke down by 75 yuan/ton. The outcome of the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism may have a significant impact on the macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have rebounded to near the spot parity level. The current fundamental weakness of coking coal and coke remains unchanged, with significant downward pressure [6]. - As the impact of high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall intensifies, steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile. However, steel mills are still profitable, with limited enthusiasm for production cuts. The decline in steel mills' hot metal production has slowed, and it remains at a relatively high level. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are reducing inventory through controlled and reduced procurement, with a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices [6]. - Coke enterprises are facing increasing pressure to sell, with continuously growing and rapidly rising inventories. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, coke enterprises' operations have slightly declined. After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprises' profits are near the break-even point, but there may be further price cuts due to weak downstream demand and continuous weakening of raw material prices. Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - On the coking coal supply side, coal mine production cuts due to accidents, working face changes, and inventory pressure have increased, resulting in a slight reduction in coal supply, but it remains relatively loose. Coal mine sales are poor, coke enterprises are purchasing cautiously as needed, and transaction prices are continuously falling. The intermediate links are generally cautious and waiting, but the port inventory has rebounded from the bottom, indicating that traders are more confident in the future market. Coal mines are facing increasing pressure to sell, with continuous inventory accumulation, falling pithead prices, and coal mine raw coal and clean coal inventories reaching record highs. There are many cases of online auction failures and price cuts. The Mongolian coal port market has seen an increase in inquiries, but actual transactions are limited, and the inventory pressure in the supervision area is high, with a decrease in customs clearance volume. The coking coal spot market is weakly operating, and the futures market is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: For coke futures, J2601 closed at 1260.1, down 8.0 from the previous day; J2605 closed at 1376.0, down 1.0; J2509 data is incomplete. For coking coal futures, JM2601 closed at 793.5, up 1.0; JM2605 closed at 822.5, up 4.0; JM2509 closed at 780.0, up 1.5. The 2509 contract's coking profit was 238.2 yuan/ton, down 12.7 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Spot Market: Coke spot prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. Coking coal spot prices: Australian low-volatile coal was 668, unchanged; Australian medium-volatile coal was 1634, down 4; Shanxi's optimal delivery warehouse receipt was 857, unchanged. The 01, 05, and 09 contract's coking profit decreased by 8.7, 5.8, and 12.7 respectively [2]. - Fundamentals: 247 steel enterprises' daily average hot metal production was 241.8, down 0.11 (-0.05%); 247 steel enterprises' daily average coke production was 47.3, down 0.04 (-0.08%); the daily average coke production of all independent coking plants was 66.8, down 0.27 (-0.40%); 247 steel enterprises' daily average coke consumption was 108.8, down 0.05 (-0.05%); the coke inventory of all independent coking plants was 127.0, up 15.6 (14.03%); 247 steel enterprises' coke inventory was 645.8, down 9.1 (-1.39%); port coke inventory was 214.2, down 3.0 (-1.40%). For coking coal, 110 coal washing plants' daily average clean coal production was 51.5, down 0.3 (-0.60%); 523 mines' daily average clean coal production was 74.5, down 1.8 (-2.29%); 110 coal washing plants' clean coal inventory was 245.1, up 23.0 (10.35%); 523 mines' clean coal inventory was 480.7, up 7.7 (1.63%); the coking coal inventory of all independent coking plants was 681.8, down 27.4 (-3.24%); 247 steel enterprises' coking coal inventory was 770.9, down 16.9 (-2.02%); port coking coal inventory was 313.0, up 9.9 (3.28%) [2]. 3.2 Important News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held on June 9 [4]. - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on further ensuring and improving people's livelihood and addressing people's urgent and difficult problems, including measures such as canceling household registration restrictions for social insurance participation in the place of employment [4]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with exports of 10.67 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports of 7.27 trillion yuan (down 3.8%) [4]. - In May 2025, US consumers' future inflation expectations declined across the board for the first time since 2024, with the one-year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% [4]. - On June 9, the national main port iron ore transactions were 850,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.4%; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel transactions were 102,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [4]. - In May 2025, construction enterprises' actual steel procurement volume was 5.57 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.4%; the actual procurement volume in June is expected to decrease by about 3% month-on-month [4]. - In May 2025, China imported 36.04 million tons of coal, a decrease of 7.776 million tons (-17.7%) compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 1.785 million tons (-4.7%) compared with April [5]. - In May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the same decline as the previous month; PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. The ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [5]. - From January to May 2025, China's steel imports totaled 255,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%; the import value was 4.29 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%. The average import price of steel from January to May was 1,681.6 US dollars per ton, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In May 2025, China exported 1.0578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 4.8469 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [5].