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中辉期货农产品观点-20250610
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-06-10 05:48

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Short - term rebound for soybean meal: With South American soybean production mostly determined, US soybean planting progressing well and future rainfall sufficient, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increasing, the overall fundamental situation is bearish. However, there was a technical rebound, with potential short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Resistance is strong in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][3]. - Short - term oscillation for rapeseed meal: Current rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories at oil mills are not under pressure, but high commercial rapeseed meal inventories are bearish for the July contract. Import volume is expected to decrease in the long - term, but Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment. The short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - Short - term rebound and consolidation for palm oil: Domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and imports have improved. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory accumulation cycle has started. India's import increase and tariff reduction, as well as Malaysia's B20 policy, are positive factors. However, due to the inventory accumulation cycle, the strategy is to sell at high prices [1][9]. - Short - term strength for cotton: The US main cotton - growing areas have a moderate excellent - good rate, and future weather is favorable for production. In China, there is an increasing production expectation but the risk of high - temperature disturbances in June. Inventory reduction is faster than expected, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing export prospects have not significantly improved [1][13]. - Rebound under pressure for red dates: New - season jujube trees are growing well, but old - crop high inventory remains a problem. Downstream consumption is weak, and the upward driving force for the price is limited [1][15]. - Weak operation for live pigs: The long - term supply pressure guided by the number of breeding sows has not improved significantly. In the near - term, both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume, and the demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - International situation: South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. Future rainfall is sufficient, and the CPC's June rainfall outlook is favorable [1][3]. - Domestic situation: Ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operation rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish. The average monthly import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of June 6, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.462 million tons, and 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, with a 4.70% increase from the previous week [3]. - Price and strategy: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3019 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there was a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered, with resistance in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][2][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory situation: As of June 6, coastal areas' main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 202,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from the previous week; rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; and unexecuted contracts were 51,000 tons, down 11,000 tons [7]. - Supply and demand: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed has been harvested in May. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment, and the short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - Price and strategy: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2614 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. Attention should be paid to the risk of subsequent tariff policies [1][4]. Palm Oil - Inventory situation: As of June 6, 2025 (Week 23), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, up 2.36% from the previous week and down 0.67% from last year [9]. - International factors: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons, and it has reduced the import tariff on edible oils. Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and the B20 policy is being promoted [9]. - Price and strategy: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8182 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. It is expected to be bullish at the beginning of this week, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk after the release of Malaysia's May inventory data. The strategy is to sell at high prices due to the inventory accumulation cycle [1][8][9]. Cotton - International situation: The US cotton planting rate is 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas are affected by drought, which has decreased by 1%. The excellent - good rate is 49%, lower than the same - period level by 12%. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year. India's southwest monsoon has stalled, and Pakistan's sown area has reached 95% of last year's, with a slight risk of production decline [11]. - Domestic situation: Xinjiang's cotton seedlings are mostly budding and some are blooming. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage in southern Xinjiang. The cost is expected to decrease slightly. The inventory reduction is fast, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing exports have not significantly improved [12][13]. - Price and strategy: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 13495 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. ICE cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 13700 yuan [1][10][13]. Red Dates - Production situation: Southern Xinjiang's jujube trees are in the full - bloom stage, and the growth is good. The 36 - sample physical inventory is 106,753 tons, 85 tons higher than the previous week and 4445 tons higher than the same period [15]. - Market situation: The supply in the sales area is continuous, and the demand is weak. With the increase in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [15]. - Price and strategy: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 8910 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to weather - related price fluctuations [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - Supply situation: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June is expected to decrease slightly, but the supply pressure has not significantly improved. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets in May increased, which will bring pressure in Q4. In the long - term, the reduction of breeding sows in April is not significant enough to indicate a turning point in production capacity [18]. - Demand situation: Terminal demand is cooling with the rise in temperature, and the support from secondary fattening is weakening [18][19]. - Price and strategy: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13475 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [17][18][19].