5月中国物价数据点评：外冷内热的价格信号

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, the year-on-year CPI was -0.1%, with the decline remaining unchanged for three consecutive months, and the month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.2%, showing a seasonal decline. The year-on-year PPI was -3.3%, with the decline widening by 0.6 pct compared to April, and the month-on-month PPI decreased by 0.4%, with the decline remaining unchanged for three consecutive months [2]. - CPI is dragged down by the energy item, while core CPI continues to rise, indicating that demand may be warming up. The consumption structural improvement is still in the transition period, and service CPI continues to grow [3]. - International crude oil import factors, energy transformation, and insufficient demand for real estate and infrastructure lead to a decline in production material prices, dragging down the year-on-year negative growth of PPI to expand. However, PPI continues to show price improvement in high-tech industries, and the recovery impact gradually spreads from policy-driven areas to other consumer goods areas [3][4]. - From the perspective of residents' income, the year-on-year decline in rent has remained at -0.1% for three consecutive months since March, indicating that the income improvement trend may have stagnated. From the perspective of corporate activity signs, the year-on-year decline in pork prices for two consecutive months and the decline in liquor prices may indicate a decrease in corporate business activity [5][6]. - In the short term, CPI may face fluctuations, but in the long term, if external interference factors decrease marginally, CPI may break through upward. PPI is in a supply-side dilemma, but the effect of domestic demand pulling has initially appeared, and the "rush to export" of external demand may bring a phased rebound in industrial product prices [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Observation: Characteristics of May Inflation Data - CPI: Affected by the energy item, the year-on-year upward trend has stagnated below the critical line, but core inflation has risen to 0.6% year-on-year, showing that consumer demand continues to warm up. The consumption structure is improving, and service CPI has continued to grow for four months, reaching 0.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - PPI: Affected by international crude oil import factors, energy transformation, and insufficient demand for real estate and infrastructure, the year-on-year negative growth has expanded. However, PPI continues to show price improvement in high-tech industries, and the recovery impact gradually spreads from policy-driven areas to other consumer goods areas [3][4]. In - depth Perspective: Implications of March Price Data - Residents' income: The year-on-year decline in rent has remained at -0.1% for three consecutive months since March, indicating that the income improvement trend may have stagnated [5]. - Corporate activity: The year-on-year decline in pork prices for two consecutive months and the decline in liquor prices may indicate a decrease in corporate business activity [5][6]. Future Outlook: Trends Seen Through May Inflation Data - CPI: In the short term, it may face fluctuations due to external uncertainties, but in the long term, if external interference factors decrease marginally, it may break through upward [7]. - PPI: It is in a supply-side dilemma, but the effect of domestic demand pulling has initially appeared, and the "rush to export" of external demand may bring a phased rebound in industrial product prices, but attention should be paid to the negative impact of low - price competition among enterprises during the rush to export [8].