国泰君安期货所长早读-20250610

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk appetite in the stock market has rebounded moderately, creating a relatively strong pattern. The index is in a slow - bull state with prominent structural market conditions, driven by limited external risk disturbances, stable domestic fundamentals and optimistic policy expectations, and the inflow of funds due to the shift from short to long positions [7]. - The cast aluminum alloy is expected to open high on the first day of listing but may decline later. It is recommended to pay attention to inter - period positive spreads and long AD short AL positions [8]. - The pulp market is affected by news but is expected to have limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [10]. - Crude oil may continue to be strong in the short - term, with Brent having a chance to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, but there is significant downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - The current index is in a slow - bull state with prominent structural market conditions. External risk disturbances are limited, domestic fundamentals are stable, and policy expectations are optimistic. The inflow of funds due to the shift from short to long positions also contributes to the market. However, if the market rises too fast or there are new changes in the external environment, the index may experience greater fluctuations [7]. 3.2 Cast Aluminum Alloy - It is expected to open high on the first day of listing, with a possible 6 - 8% increase in the call auction. The listing price is significantly lower than the reasonable valuation. However, the fundamentals are weak, and it is likely to open high and fall low. It is recommended to pay attention to inter - period positive spreads and long AD short AL positions around mid - year [8]. 3.3 Pulp - The shutdown of a pulp mill by Fenbao Group boosts the market, but the upside is limited. June is the off - season for the downstream paper market, with weak terminal market performance, low raw material procurement enthusiasm of paper mills, and high inventory, making it difficult for the market to have an unexpected performance [10]. 3.4 Crude Oil - Short - term: Both domestic and foreign crude oil markets are relatively strong. Brent may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter. The actual increase in supply is lower than expected, and there are still positive factors such as the contraction of Iranian oil supply, low inventory in major regions, and slow growth of US shale oil supply. - Medium - to - long - term: There is significant downward pressure, and Brent may test $50 per barrel this year. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads as appropriate [11]. 3.5 Other Commodities - Gold and Silver: Gold's non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations, and silver had a technical breakthrough. Gold's trend strength is 0, and silver's is 2 [14][22]. - Copper: The strength of LME copper spot prices supports the price, and the trend strength is 1 [24]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is in a sideways shock, and alumina continues to decline. The trend strength of both is 0 [27]. - Zinc: Social inventory has increased, putting downward pressure on prices, and the trend strength is - 1 [30]. - Lead: In the short - term, supply and demand are both weak, but it is bullish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of 1 [33]. - Tin: It has stopped falling and rebounded, with a trend strength of 1 [36]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel prices are oscillating due to the game between real - world support and weak expectations. Stainless steel prices are oscillating in a range due to increased production cuts through negative feedback. The trend strength of both is 0 [40]. - Lithium Carbonate: The ore price has stabilized, and the weak oscillation continues, with a trend strength of 0 [45]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited upside space and is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies. Polysilicon is recommended to be short - allocated on the disk. The trend strength of both is - 1 [48]. - Iron Ore: It oscillates repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The demand expectation is weak, and they are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength of both is 0 [54]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: They are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [58]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke is in wide - range oscillations with a trend strength of - 1, and coking coal is also in wide - range oscillations with a trend strength of 0 [62]. - Steam Coal: Demand needs to be released, and it is in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [66]. - Log: It oscillates repeatedly [70].