日度策略参考-20250610

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some products are as follows: - Bullish: Jiao Coal, Coke, Ethylene Glycol [1] - Bearish: None explicitly stated - Neutral (Oscillating): Most of the products, including stocks, treasury bonds, gold, various non - ferrous metals, building materials, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products [1] Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force on the stock index, with weak fundamentals and a relatively policy - vacuum environment. Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations. Although there are positive signals in Sino - US economic and trade relations recently, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but caution is needed due to the possible repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - Different factors drive the trends of various commodities. For example, asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space; the long - term upward logic of gold is solid, but it may fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock Index: Driven by overseas variables in the short term, expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious of the repetition of Sino - US tariff signals [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - Gold: May oscillate in the short term, with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Yin: Expected to continue to be strong in the short term, but beware of a pull - back [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space, expected to oscillate [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and volatile macro - sentiment may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increased production pressure on the futures price, expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the sustainability of social inventory reduction on Thursday [1]. - Nickel: Short - term oscillation following the macro - environment, long - term pressure from primary nickel surplus, pay attention to inventory changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term bottom - oscillation, long - term supply pressure exists, pay attention to steel mill production arrangements [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply shows improvement, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge, expected to oscillate [1]. - Polysilicon: Downstream production scheduling drops rapidly, futures premium over spot, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: Mine prices continue to fall, downstream procurement is inactive, and raw material inventory is high [1]. Building Materials - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: In the window period of switching from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand balance, no upward price drive is observed, expected to oscillate [1]. - Iron Ore: There is an expectation of iron - water peak, and supply may increase in June, pay attention to steel pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - Silicon Manganese: Short - term supply - demand balance, slight increase in production, acceptable demand, but heavy warehouse - receipt pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - Silicon Iron: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply surplus, expected to oscillate [1]. - Glass Film: Supply and demand are both weak, with the arrival of the off - peak season, demand weakens, and the price continues to be weak, expected to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: Maintenance resumes, direct demand is acceptable, but concerns about supply surplus resurface, and terminal demand is weak, price is under pressure, expected to oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal: The spot price continues to weaken, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. It can still be short - sold, with the upper limit of the target price at 780 - 800 [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal, with the continuous decline of coal - entering - furnace cost, the price drops synchronously, expected to decline [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB released a May report with expected production + 3%, export + 17%, and inventory + 9%. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - Soybean Oil: A game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations of other oils, expected to oscillate [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The expectation of China - Canada negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key negative driving factors, beware of a rebound in the market [1]. - Cotton: Affected by trade negotiations and weather premiums in the short term, with strong macro - uncertainty in the long term, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio [1]. - Wheat: Supported by the purchase - support policy, with tightening supply and increasing demand, expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - Soybeans: The pressure of Brazilian soybean arrivals is mainly reflected in the basis and near - month contracts. The market lacks upward momentum, expected to oscillate [1]. - Pulp: Demand is light at present, but the downward space is limited, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Logs: Supply is abundant, demand is light, it is recommended to hold short positions or short after a rebound [1]. - Hogs: The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the futures price is expected to be stable [1]. Energy - Chemical Products - Crude Oil: Affected by Sino - US calls, geopolitical situation, and summer consumption peak [1]. - Natural Rubber: The futures - spot price difference has fully converged, raw material prices have fallen, and inventory has decreased significantly, expected to oscillate [1]. - BR Rubber: The short - term fundamentals are loose, expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement in the long term [1]. - PTA: The tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber costs are closely related. Some factories have planned maintenance [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, imports are blocked, and it continues to destock. It is expected to decline [1]. - Short - fiber: The short - term tight situation has been alleviated, and short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - Styrene: The speculative demand has weakened, the device load has increased, inventory has risen, and the basis has weakened, expected to oscillate [1]. - Urea: The daily production is still high, and the short - term export demand is expected to increase, and the market may rebound [1]. - Methanol: The domestic start - up rate remains high, inventory is increasing, and traditional downstream demand is weak, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PP: The support of maintenance is limited, orders are for rigid demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - PVC: Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, and the off - peak season is coming, supply pressure increases, expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - LPG: The price is weak, in a narrow - range fluctuation, and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. Others - Three - cloud Line: The market shows a strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly long - tested, and attention can be paid to 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].