甲醇日评：短期反弹，高度有限-20250610

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Short - term methanol has rebound momentum due to the recent rebound in oil prices and coal prices, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading. However, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient. From a valuation perspective, methanol is still not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving perspective, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol returns to its own fundamental pricing. Supply from imports and inland has recovered quickly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Content Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2279 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.40%; MA09 closed at 2277 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2325 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.87%; in Shandong, 2162.50 yuan/ton, up 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.82%; in Guangdong, 2300 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.22%; in Shaanxi, 1937.50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.52%; in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, there was no change; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1882.50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or - 0.53% [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 13 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all remained unchanged at 425 yuan/ton, 470 yuan/ton, and 480 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, they remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 600 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit of methanol: Northwest MTO profit was 587.60 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 2.55%; East China MTO profit was - 611.07 yuan/ton, down 108.50 yuan/ton or - 21.59%; acetic acid profit was 473.45 yuan/ton, down 39.25 yuan/ton or - 7.66%; MTBE profit was 303.32 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 19.74%; formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at - 186.40 yuan/ton; another product's profit was 798 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or - 11.14% [1] Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2265 yuan/ton, closed at 2277 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 590228 lots and an open interest of 819092, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. All contracts had trading on the trading day [1] - Foreign information: Currently, two methanol units with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1]