新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-10）-20250610

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound and short [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2][4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level volatile [4] - Silver: Strong - side volatile [4] - Pulp: Weak - side volatile [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Weak - side volatile [6] - Meal products: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: On - the - fence [8][10] - PTA: Try shorting at high prices [10] - MEG: On - the - fence [10] - PR: On - the - fence [10] - PF: On - the - fence [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand relationship in the black - series commodities market is gradually loosening, with the iron ore market facing the impact of reduced demand and increased tariffs, and the coking coal and coke markets suffering from high supply and weak demand [2]. - The real - estate market remains in an adjustment period, which restricts the demand for glass [2]. - The stock index shows a certain degree of differentiation, and the market sentiment is affected by economic data and policies [4]. - The price of gold is influenced by multiple factors such as central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies [4]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The supply of logs is expected to decrease, while the demand remains relatively stable [6]. - The edible - oil market is in a weak - side volatile state due to factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption [6]. - The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships [6]. - The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile [8]. - The rubber market presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. - The polyester - related product markets have different supply - demand situations, and the prices are affected by cost and downstream demand [8][10]. Summary by Categories Black - Series Commodities - Iron ore: The global iron - ore shipping volume has rebounded, but the iron - water production has declined for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand relationship is gradually loosening. The port inventory is still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water production. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to hold short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Some coal mines have stopped or reduced production, but the high - supply and weak - demand pattern is difficult to change. The coke enterprises' profits will be compressed, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The market mainly follows the trend of finished products [2]. - Rebar: Trump's tariff increase has weakened the market sentiment. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is poor. The total inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. The price is likely to fall rather than rise [2]. Building Materials - Glass: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and the price has rebounded due to environmental - protection restrictions. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased for the first time in two months. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures/options: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The market is affected by economic data such as CPI and PPI, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - Treasury bonds: The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury - bond price has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies. The short - term price is affected by factors such as the US non - farm data and tariff policies. Attention should be paid to economic data and trade negotiations [4]. Forestry Products - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand has entered the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - Logs: The demand is relatively stable, and the supply is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile [6]. Agricultural Products - Edible oils: The Southeast Asian palm - oil production is in an increasing cycle, and the domestic edible - oil market is affected by factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - Meal products: The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships. Attention should be paid to weather and supply - arrival situations [6]. - Live pigs: The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile with limited downward space [8]. - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has decreased. The price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. Chemical Products - PX: The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by polyester production reduction. The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the PXN spread still has support [8][10]. - PTA: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and the spot price follows the cost - end to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester devices [10]. - MEG: The short - to - medium - term supply - demand structure is good, and the price is supported. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load [10]. - PR: The raw - material support is weak, and the market is adjusted weakly and steadily [10]. - PF: The market is expected to be sorted warmly under the game of multiple factors [10].