市场快讯：铝合金上市策略推荐

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing price of cast aluminum alloy futures is 18,365 yuan/ton [1]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the contradiction at the raw material end may become more prominent. The price of scrap aluminum supports cast aluminum alloy from the cost - logic, and the price center of aluminum alloy may rise slightly [1]. - The calculated cost - end price range of cast aluminum alloy futures is 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - demand Pattern - Supply side: The production capacity of the recycled aluminum industry is expanding rapidly, with a capacity increase of over one million tons. This will widen the supply - demand gap of scrap aluminum, leading to a stronger pricing in the scrap aluminum recycling link [1]. - Demand side: The lightweight trend of automobiles expands the demand for die - cast aluminum alloy, and the growth rate of aluminum alloy used in automobiles is higher than the production and sales growth rate of the automobile industry [1]. Cost Price Expectation - The cost - end calculated price range of cast aluminum alloy futures is 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [2]. Listing Strategy Recommendations - For production enterprises: When the futures price is lower than the spot price plus the selling delivery cost (about 364 yuan/ton), they can buy spot for delivery to make a profit [3]. - Short - term long: The first - day listing price of 18,365 yuan/ton is significantly lower than the spot price (19,400 yuan/ton in the mainstream of East China) and below the cost line. It is recommended to go long on dips. Pay attention to the resistance levels at 19,500 yuan/ton (cost line) and 19,800 yuan/ton (the upper limit of the reasonable price difference range with Shanghai Aluminum) [3]. - Long - term short: The recycled aluminum industry has over - capacity (with an operating rate of less than 50%), there is no obvious increase in demand, and the medium - and long - term price may be under pressure. Short positions can be arranged above 20,000 yuan/ton [3]. Futures Listing Information - The listing price of cast aluminum alloy futures on June 10, 2025, for contracts expiring from November 17, 2025, to May 15, 2026, is 18,365 yuan/ton [1][4].