西南期货早间评论-20250610

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their market conditions [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income and Equities - Treasury Bonds: The previous trading day saw a differentiated closing of treasury bond futures. The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [5][6][7]. - Stock Index Futures: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Precious Metals: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.3 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downturn has led to a decline in rebar demand, and the market is in a slack season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [13][14]. - Iron Ore: The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss points [16]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed weak oscillations. The market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [18][19]. - Ferroalloys: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures had small increases. The short - term demand for ferroalloys may peak, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. If the spot losses increase significantly, investors can consider low - value call options [21][22]. - Copper: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a strong upward trend. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and investors can consider going long on Shanghai copper futures [56][57]. - Tin: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin showed an oscillating trend. The current shortage pattern in the real - world and the expectation of a loose supply are in a game, and it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is relatively large, with a bearish oscillating view [58][59]. - Nickel: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support is strong, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is expected that the price will run weakly [60]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and moved higher. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and the OPEC's pressure on oil prices is expected to have passed the most severe stage. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the crude oil main contract [23][25][26]. - Fuel Oil: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory has put pressure on prices, but the rise in crude oil prices may drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the fuel oil main contract [27][28][29]. - Synthetic Rubber: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber showed a small increase. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. - Natural Rubber: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures had different performances. The market has concerns about future demand, and the inventory has increased against the season. Wait for the market to stabilize and then look for long - position opportunities [32][33][34]. - PVC: The previous trading day, PVC showed a small increase. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and it is in a traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [35][37]. - Urea: The previous trading day, urea declined. The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price up, and investors can consider going long at low levels [38][39][40]. - Para - Xylene (PX): The previous trading day, PX futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread has a downward trend. It is recommended to trade with an oscillating mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [41]. - PTA: The previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors can consider trading in a low - level range [42][43]. - Ethylene Glycol: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and policy changes [44]. - Short - Fiber: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined slightly. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost, and investors can consider participating cautiously at low levels [45][46][47]. - Bottle Chips: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The raw material price has corrected, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost price changes [48]. - Soda Ash: The previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is oversupplied. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and investors should not chase the rise excessively [49]. - Glass: The previous trading day, glass futures increased. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive, and the market sentiment is weak. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and short - position investors should control their positions [50]. - Caustic Soda: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. Long - position investors should control their positions [51][52]. - Pulp: The previous trading day, pulp futures increased. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and the inventory is high. The real turnaround may occur in August [53]. - Lithium Carbonate: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [54][55]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures increased. The U.S. soybean growing weather is good, and the supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal, and investors can consider low - value call options for soybean oil [61][62]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level in the past seven years. Investors can consider the opportunity to widen the rapeseed - palm oil spread [63][64]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed market lacks clear trading guidance. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories have different trends. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the correction of rapeseed meal [65][66]. - Cotton: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign cotton futures increased slightly. The industry is in a traditional off - season, and new orders are limited. Investors should pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies and wait and see [67][68][69]. - Sugar: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign sugar futures had different performances. The domestic sugar inventory is low, and the import volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to go long in batches [70][71][72]. - Apples: The previous trading day, apple futures declined significantly. The new - year domestic apple production has high uncertainty. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities after the correction [73][74]. - Hogs: The previous trading day, hog futures declined slightly. The short - term price may decline, but the contract is at a discount. Investors can consider positive - spread opportunities for peak - season contracts [74][75]. - Eggs: The previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to go short at high levels [76][79]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures increased. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but the short - term supply pressure still exists. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [80][81][82]. - Logs: The previous trading day, log futures increased. The fundamental situation has no obvious drive, and the housing transaction improvement may stimulate market sentiment in the short term. Investors should be wary of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][85].