大类资产周报：资产配置与金融工程波动率下行，风险稀释但未消退

Market Overview - The market continues to exhibit a "risk-off but not panic" sentiment, with commodities and Asia-Pacific equities leading the performance[4] - Natural gas and crude oil prices have surged due to OPEC+ production cuts and summer demand, breaking key resistance levels[4] - Silver prices have skyrocketed by 9% to $36 per ounce, the highest since 2012, driven by industrial demand and safe-haven buying[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bond market shows strong value in short-duration high-grade credit bonds due to weak growth/inflation data and liquidity easing, but caution is advised as interest rate downside potential narrows[7] - U.S. equities are supported by economic resilience, although fundamental data shows marginal weakening[7] - Gold remains supported by slowing growth and safe-haven demand, but faces short-term pressure from risk appetite recovery[7] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded 50.30, slightly above the expansion threshold but down 4.45 points from March's peak of 54.75, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum[40] - The U.S. economic surprise index has dropped to -6.7, reflecting weaker-than-expected high-frequency data, reinforcing rate cut expectations[53] Market Sentiment - The implied volatility (VIX) has reached a new low, indicating a market adaptation to the noise of tariff threats, with the dollar index down nearly 9% year-to-date, enhancing the appeal of non-U.S. assets[4] - A-share market liquidity is improving, with a daily average turnover of 1.186 trillion yuan, up 10.8% week-on-week, indicating increased investor participation[57] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustment risks, market volatility risks, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6][96]