5月美国非农数据点评：非农乏善可陈，暑期消费或有一定支撑

Employment Data - In May, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 139,000, slightly above the expected 130,000 but down from the previous value of 147,000[4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the expectation and the previous value[4] - Key sectors supporting non-farm employment include healthcare and accommodation, with significant job additions in education and healthcare (87,000), accommodation (31,000), arts and entertainment (17,000), finance (13,000), and social assistance (8,000)[5] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market shows signs of rigidity, with low turnover rates, hiring rates, and layoff rates indicating limited mobility[5] - Initial jobless claims have been rising slightly over several weeks, which could signal potential negative trends if the cumulative data continues to increase[5] - Labor market data tends to lag behind economic indicators and financial market performance, making it unreliable for predicting economic turning points[5] Consumer Spending Outlook - Summer service sector consumption is expected to remain robust, supported by a notable increase in tourism-related employment in May[5] - Hourly wage growth year-on-year is at 4%, significantly outpacing inflation, which may bolster consumer spending during the summer[5] Economic Risks - Tariff impacts are viewed as external shocks that require time to manifest in economic data, potentially leading to longer-term economic challenges if unresolved[6] - While tariff uncertainties have decreased, they have not been eliminated, and the market may ultimately accept a foundational tariff rate of 10%[6] - The potential for further tax reductions under future policies could stimulate short-term economic activity but may worsen federal debt in the long run[6]