高盛：亚洲股票观点 - 强调独特性，关注韩国，优化台湾地区配置

Investment Rating - The report raises Korea to Overweight (OW) with a 12-month target price of 3,100 for KOSPI, reflecting a 13% price return and 16% total return [2][8] - Taiwan is raised to Market Weight (MW) with a 12-month target of 23,500 for TAIEX, indicating a 10% price return [2][17] - Singapore is lowered to Market Weight (MW) and Indonesia to Underweight (UW) due to earnings downgrades and valuation concerns [2][39][43] Core Insights - Macro risk has moderated, but the outlook remains uncertain, suggesting a focus on idiosyncratic opportunities for better risk/reward parameters [2][3] - The report emphasizes leaning into Korea due to domestic positives that outweigh global cyclical risks, with a projected 16% earnings growth for 2025 [2][8] - Taiwan's risk/reward has become more balanced after sharp underperformance, with improving AI sentiment and stable earnings [2][24][33] - ASEAN outlook is moderated, with a positive stance on the Philippines and Malaysia, while Thailand faces structural challenges [2][38][43] - The report anticipates 8%/11% total returns on the MXAPJ index, driven by earnings growth and a target P/E of 13.6x [2][48] Summary by Sections Macro Environment - Economic policy uncertainty has decreased, and Asian equity markets have rebounded sharply, with the MXAPJ index up 21% year-to-date [3][6] - Concerns remain about potential trade tensions as tariff pauses end, but positioning in the market is light, indicating potential for further gains [3][6] Korea - The new government is expected to implement growth-oriented policies, including significant investments in strategic industries [9][10] - Financial market reforms are anticipated to improve corporate governance and potentially add Korea to the MSCI DM-upgrade watchlist, which could attract $20-30 billion in net buying [10][13] - Valuations remain low, with forward P/E at 9.3x, suggesting attractive investment opportunities [10][18] Taiwan - The report highlights a more favorable risk/reward profile for Taiwan, with a stable earnings outlook and improving market sentiment in the tech sector [17][24] - Valuations have normalized, and foreign investor flows have turned positive, indicating potential for re-leveraging [33][39] ASEAN - Singapore's strong performance has led to a downgrade to MW, while Indonesia's earnings downgrades have prompted an UW rating [38][43] - The Philippines is expected to see 10% domestically driven EPS growth, while Malaysia remains at MW due to inexpensive valuations [38][39] Regional Outlook - The report maintains an Overweight stance on China and Japan while being Underweight on Australia and Hong Kong [48][49] - The focus on technology hardware and semiconductors has been raised to MW, reflecting confidence in AI and HPC segments [49][50]