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金属行业2025半年度展望（Ⅲ）：供需结构持续改善，小金属板块或显现底部抬升
Dongxing Securities·2025-06-10 07:50

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The global metal industry is currently in a weak supply cycle, with supply growth remaining rigid and under pressure. The exploration investment in the mining sector has decreased by 3% to $12.5 billion in 2024, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive year [6][21]. - The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, while the lithium industry is showing signs of improvement in its supply-demand relationship [5][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global metal supply growth rate is significantly lower than the output growth rate, with the actual supply growth rate dropping from 6.35% to 2.22% in 2024, which is only 49.8% of the average growth rate over the past 30 years [7][22]. - The supply of magnesium is projected to maintain a tight balance, with global magnesium demand expected to grow from 112,000 tons in 2024 to 200,000 tons by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 21% [10][62]. 2. Small Metals Sector - The magnesium sector is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with China's magnesium resources accounting for 70% of global reserves. The country is projected to increase its magnesium output from 102.6 million tons in 2024 to 175 million tons by 2027 [50][68]. - The lithium sector is expected to see a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with global lithium supply projected to grow from 123.1 million tons LCE in 2024 to 186 million tons LCE by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15% [11][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the cyclical, growth, and hedging attributes of the metal industry, suggesting that investors should pay attention to industrial metals with resilient supply-demand states, small metals with expanding demand elasticity, and precious metals with strong hedging properties [7][8].