冠通期货资讯早间报-20250610

Report Summary 1. Market Performance Overnight - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures flat at $3,346.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.12% at $36.91 per ounce [2] - International oil prices strengthened, with the U.S. oil main contract up 1.24% at $65.38 per barrel and the Brent crude main contract up 0.96% at $67.11 per barrel [3] - London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper up 1.03% at $9,769.02 per ton and LME nickel down 0.76% at $15,325.9 per ton [4] - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. Styrene (EB) rose more than 1%, while coking coal fell more than 2% [4] - U.S. agricultural product futures fell across the board, with CBOT corn futures down 2.15%, CBOT wheat futures down 2.25%, and CBOT soybean futures down 0.12% [4] 2. Macroeconomic News - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1,622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period [7] - Citigroup postponed its forecast for the Fed's next rate cut from July to September and now expects a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year [7] - In the first five months, China's imports of iron ore decreased by 5.2%, crude oil increased by 0.3%, coal decreased by 7.9%, natural gas decreased by 9.5%, soybeans decreased by 0.7%, and refined oil decreased by 26.8% [7] - In May 2025, China's CPI was down 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [8] - On June 9, the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London [9] - California Governor Gavin Newsom said he would sue the Trump administration over the National Guard deployment issue [9] 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - The local quotation of photovoltaic glass in the market has fallen below 12 yuan per square meter, with the lowest transaction price approaching 11.5 yuan per square meter [13] - As of June 6, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.39 million cubic meters, down 0.59% from the previous week [13] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, down 0.67% from the previous period [13] - Morgan Stanley said OPEC+ may be significantly increasing oil production quotas, but the actual output increase is not obvious [13] - The U.S. Bank's commodities research head said OPEC+'s oil production increase plan is part of Saudi Arabia's strategy to start a long - term but moderate price war [13] - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the U.S. plan on the Iran nuclear deal is unacceptable [14] 4. Metal Futures - The listing benchmark prices for casting aluminum alloy futures contracts AD2511 - AD2605 are set at 18,365 yuan per ton [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of high market volatility and advised members and investors to take risk - prevention measures [18] - China's lithium hydroxide production in June 2025 is expected to be 20,200 tons, down 5.8% month - on - month [19] 5. Black - series Futures - Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 3.5104 million tons, up 79,400 tons week - on - week [21] - China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals totaled 2.6739 million tons, up 76,500 tons week - on - week [21] - As of the week of June 6, the total manganese ore inventory at ports was 420,200 tons, up 13,200 tons from the previous period [21] 6. Agricultural Product Futures - The central government will conduct a 10,000 - ton centralized procurement of frozen pork on June 11, 2025 [25] - As of June 6, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 812,700 tons, up 7.66% week - on - week [25] - Analysts expect Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production to be 169.27 million tons and Argentina's to be 4.904 million tons [25] - With the arrival of imported soybeans, the soybean commercial inventory of major oil mills has reached nearly 7 million tons [26] - APK - Inform lowered its forecast for Ukraine's 2025 grain production by 4.3% to 52.9 million tons [27] - As of June 9, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.9568 million tons, up 215,970 tons from June 3 [28] - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers in the central - southern region had harvested 1.9% of the 2025 second - season corn, the slowest pace since 2021 [28] - In the week ending June 5, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, and the U.S. shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China [31] - As of June 8, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [31] 7. Financial Markets Commodities - The first recycled metal variety, casting aluminum alloy futures and options, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10, with the benchmark price for 7 contracts set at 18,365 yuan per ton [33] Bonds - Domestic inter - bank bond yields were mixed, and the central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection [36] - Japan is considering repurchasing some long - term bonds, and Japanese investors sold a large amount of German and U.S. sovereign bonds in April [36] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board due to concerns about bond auctions, supply - demand adjustments, and investor sentiment [37] - European bond yields generally declined due to weak economic fundamentals in the eurozone [37] Foreign Exchange - Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system and strengthen its role as an offshore RMB business center [38] - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1838 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, up 9 basis points from the previous trading day [38] - The three major RMB exchange rate indices fell last week, hitting new lows [41] - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.19% at the New York close, and non - U.S. currencies generally rose [41] 8. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released include South Korea's April current account, the U.K.'s May unemployment rate, etc. [44] - Key events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, and various conferences and corporate events [46]