Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-10 08:52Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Attention should be paid to the new impacts brought by changes in tariff policies. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure and is about to reach the resistance level. It is recommended to go short on rallies [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,880 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,974 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars. The 07 - 08 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of Shanghai lead is 87,192 lots, up 263 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,010 lots, up 826 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 42,198 tons, up 399 tons. The inventory of SHFE is 47,936 tons, up 1,436 tons; the LME lead inventory is 281,275 tons, down 1,375 tons [2] 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract is - 255 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 26.98 US dollars/ton, down 3.9 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 15,796 yuan, up 92 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 70.88%, up 0.31 percentage points. The weekly output of primary lead is 35,000 tons, up 1,100 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 30 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is - 1,021.76 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, unchanged from 720 yuan. The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average market price of waste batteries is 10,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 41,450 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of batteries is 20,200,000 pieces, up 750,000 pieces. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,694.5 points, up 26.21 points. The monthly automobile output is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles [2] Industry News - There are multiple news including protests in Los Angeles, the US Department of Justice's request to extend the suspension of the Trump tariff invalidation judgment, Trump's statements on not considering a meeting with Musk, the US Congressional Budget Office's prediction on debt - ceiling measures, the US Senate's plan to introduce a major adjustment plan for the Trump tax - reform bill, Trump's new - born savings plan, Japan's negotiation plans, and Japan's consideration of repurchasing some ultra - long - term bonds [2] Macro - aspect - In May in the US, the newly - added non - farm payrolls were slightly better than expected, but the data of the previous two months were significantly revised down; the unemployment rate was stable, and the average hourly wage was better than expected. Bets on the Fed's interest - rate cuts decreased. With fewer subsequent interest - rate cuts, there will be continuous unrest in the US, which will have a greater impact on lead demand [2]