Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-10 08:52Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated with increased trading volume, a premium on the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the processing fee for copper concentrates remained low, with a tight supply of international concentrates. In China, the port inventory of copper concentrates decreased, and smelters' demand for concentrates increased. Regarding supply, although the domestic port inventory decreased, it remained at a sufficient level. With the easing of relations with the US, scrap copper imports were expected to supplement, and smelters' raw materials were temporarily sufficient, with their production willingness improving. In terms of imports and exports, the domestic import window opened, and with the increase in the shipment volume of copper ores and copper from Chile to China, the overall domestic supply was expected to show a slight increase after arrival. On the demand side, affected by the off - season of consumption, the overall downstream production declined to varying degrees. The relatively high domestic copper price might dampen downstream purchasing sentiment, weakening the trading sentiment in the spot market and slightly increasing domestic inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper might be in a situation of sufficient supply and slightly subdued demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.93, a decrease of 0.0053 from the previous period, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, both lines were above the 0 - axis, the DIF crossed below the DEA, and the green bars expanded. The operation suggestion was to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 78,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,750 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 US dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The position volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 208,685 lots, an increase of 6,379 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was 451 lots, an increase of 3,857 lots. The LME copper inventory was 122,400 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 107,404 tons, an increase of 1,613 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 71,725 tons, an increase of 3,925 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 33,746 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 79,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot price was 79,295 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 67 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 395 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread was 95.78 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25.94 US dollars. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 292.44 million tons, an increase of 53.13 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.29 US dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.27 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,150 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,850 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 4. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 125.40 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 208.10 million tons, a decrease of 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 140.816 billion yuan, an increase of 45.195 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 2,772.957 billion yuan, an increase of 782.54 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,167 million pieces, a decrease of 30,199.90 pieces. [2] 6. Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.40%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.54%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 12.86%, an increase of 0.0028 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.93, a decrease of 0.0053. [2] 7. Industry News - New York Fed survey data showed that in May, US consumers' future inflation expectations declined across the board for the first time since 2024, with the one - year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2%. The three - year and five - year inflation expectations also decreased. National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month, and 3.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Customs data showed that in the first five months of this year, China's exports of equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 58.3% of the total export value. The growth rates of sub - sectors such as electric vehicles and industrial robots were significant, at 19% and 55.4% respectively. The contribution rate of the equipment manufacturing industry to the overall export growth was 73%, reaching 76.9% in May. Passenger Car Association data showed that in May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.96 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. From January to May, the cumulative retail sales were 8.934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 1.021 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.2% and a month - on - month increase of 12.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail sales were 4.351 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34.1%. The China Index Academy stated that currently, land - acquiring enterprises were still mainly state - owned enterprises, continuing the trend since 2022. From the sales side, real - estate enterprises' sales were still in a downward trend, and the pressure on the sales side might continue to be transmitted to the investment side. Therefore, the substantial improvement of private real - estate enterprises' confidence required the recovery of sales. [2]