甲醇周报：关注反弹后的沽空机会-20250610

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report recommends paying attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound of methanol. Currently, the valuation of methanol is relatively neutral compared to its upstream and downstream. The fundamental outlook is bearish, with supply expected to increase in June due to high upstream profits leading to more restarts than maintenance in the mainland and the resumption of Iranian shipments, while demand has limited room for further improvement as MTO demand is at a high level and traditional demand is in the off - season with poor profits [5][45]. - The report suggests focusing on short - selling opportunities after the rebound, specifically in the 2310 - 2330 range for the 09 contract [5][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - From May 26 to June 6, the methanol price oscillated and rebounded. The main reasons were the rebound of oil and coal prices, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading, which provided short - term upward momentum for methanol [5][10][45]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis in East China weakened slightly. On May 26, the basis in East China was 46 yuan/ton, and on June 6, it was 36 yuan/ton. The 09 - 01 spread remained stable. On May 26, the spread was - 69 yuan/ton, and on June 6, it was - 63 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - Cost and Operation: The profit of coal - to - methanol production gradually declined, but remained relatively high due to the low coal price. As of June 6, the Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price was 618 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from May 23, and the Datong steam - coal wagon - top price was 535 yuan/ton, unchanged from May 23. As of June 5, the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 80.3%, down 0.12 percentage points month - on - month and up 6.34 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 49.53%, down 0.65 percentage points month - on - month and down 2.48 percentage points year - on - year. Methanol supply in June is expected to be relatively loose, with high domestic supply due to high coal - to - methanol profits and increased imports as most of the previously shut - down Iranian plants have restarted [15]. - Inventory: Methanol has gradually entered the inventory accumulation stage. As of the week of June 5, the inventory in East China ports was 29.26 million tons, up 4.5 million tons month - on - month and up 0.83 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in South China ports was 16.58 million tons, up 1.9 million tons month - on - month and down 1.01 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in the Northwest region was 23.45 million tons, up 1.85 million tons month - on - month and down 0.19 million tons year - on - year [22]. 3.4 Demand - side Analysis - MTO Demand: The demand for methanol - to - olefins (MTO) has limited room for further improvement. MTO is the largest consumer of methanol, accounting for over 50%. The profit of coastal MTO plants has declined slightly but remains at a relatively high level compared to previous years, while the profit of inland plants is relatively poor, limiting the upward space of inland coal - to - methanol prices. As of June 5, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 84.55%, up 2.54 percentage points month - on - month and up 15.96 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of enterprises using externally - purchased methanol to produce olefins was 85.13%, up 0.61 percentage points month - on - month and up 27.61 percentage points year - on - year [27]. - Traditional Demand: Traditional demand for methanol is generally weak. The traditional downstream industries of methanol include acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, with consumption shares of about 5.59%, 5.65%, 4.84%, and 1.65% respectively. In the short term, the profit of traditional downstream industries is poor, and traditional demand is unlikely to provide positive factors [33].