瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250610

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short - term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,750 - 12,350 in the short - term [2][3] - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, rainfall affects the supply of latex, resulting in a tight supply of raw materials. In Hainan, the weather has improved, and rubber tapping and raw material output are gradually recovering. Due to concerns about typhoon weather in the next few days, some processing plants are more eager to grab latex [2] - Last week, the bonded area at Qingdao Port increased in inventory, while the general trade warehouses continued to reduce inventory. The arrival of overseas goods continued to decrease, leading to a continuous decline in the total inbound volume of spot goods in Qingdao. Tire companies mostly made low - price purchases according to their rigid needs, and the improved purchasing sentiment led to the total outbound volume in Qingdao being greater than the inbound volume [2] - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline last week. As the enterprises under maintenance gradually restart, the device output will gradually return to normal. However, the overall order performance of tire enterprises is average, and the inventory reduction rhythm of finished products is slow. To control inventory pressure, some enterprises still have maintenance plans, which will limit the increase in overall capacity utilization [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 13,805 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,155 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 885 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 25 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,650 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 168,567 lots, up 145 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 33,615 lots, down 2,675 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 19,426 lots, up 3,270 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 3,476 lots, down 41 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 193,220 tons, down 30 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 30,138 tons, up 4,233 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,640 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,560 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 45 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 85 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,143 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was - 12 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 65.9 baht/kg, up 0.79 baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62.26 baht/kg, up 0.37 baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) was 56 baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 45.2 baht/kg, up 0.3 baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 89.2 US dollars/ton, down 118.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 1 US dollar/ton, up 4 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, down 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, down 32,900 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.47%, down 1.33 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 41.87 days, down 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.84 days, down 0.38 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, down 0.61 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, down 4.27 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.24%, down 2.2 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.91%, down 1.88 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.96%, down 0.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From June 8th to June 14th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, western Thailand, and southwestern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which also had a greater impact on rubber tapping [2] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67%. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decline of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 0.54%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [2] - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% from April 2025 and an increase of about 6% from 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [2]